Norwich City host Portsmouth at Carrow Road on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 3pm UK. The Canaries sit 20th with nine points from ten games and have lost their last five in a row, but they have scored in three of those and the goals keep coming at both ends. Portsmouth are 16th and arrive fresh from a 3-2 win over Sheffield United.
Both sides have been involved in plenty of goals, and that makes this a hard game to read. Norwich lost 3-4 to Bolton and 3-4 away at Middlesbrough in the space of a few weeks, while Pompey have taken a more controlled route to their eleven points.
Norwich City have won three and lost seven of their ten, scoring 17 and conceding 20. Their goals record is the 5th most in the division, but they also have the 2nd most conceded. Their last five results, newest first: a 0-1 home defeat to Southampton on Wednesday, a 2-1 loss at Swansea, the 3-4 against Bolton, a 5-0 Carabao Cup defeat at Manchester City and the 4-3 at Middlesbrough. Before that run they had won two on the spin.
Norwich are a goals game. They have gone over 2.5 goals in 80% of their matches, the highest rate in the Championship, and both teams have scored in 70% of them. They average 5.3 shots on target, the 4th most in the league, and have not kept a clean sheet all season.
Portsmouth have won three, drawn two and lost four from nine, scoring 12 and conceding 13. Sitting 16th in the table, they have taken a more measured route: the 3-2 win over Sheffield United followed a 1-0 defeat at Southampton and a 2-2 draw with Blackburn. They have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their games, the 8th highest rate, and win more corners than almost anyone: 7 a game, the 2nd most in the league.
Norwich City possible starting lineup:
Kovačević; Stacey, Darling, McConville, Yongwa; Wright, Mattsson, Brooks; Myles, Schwartau, Kvistgaarden
Portsmouth possible starting lineup:
Schmid; Swanson, Poole, Dia, Meghoma; Pack, Adams; Shade, Segecic, Kamara; Bishop
Jacob Wright is Norwich's most reliable shooter at the moment. He has had a shot in six straight games and a shot on target in four, and the shots-on-target run is 1.91 at Ladbrokes.
P. Mattsson has made a tackle in eight straight and committed two or more fouls in four straight, averaging 3.3 a game. The fouls run is 1.70 at Midnite.
Adrian Segecic has had two or more shots in four straight games, averaging 2.3, and is 1.73 at bet365.
Ebou Adams has made at least one tackle in all nine of Portsmouth's games, at 2.1 a game.
Marko Milovanović has had a shot in five straight games, and the run is priced at 1.11 at bet365.
We back Norwich to win this one, with the home win at 1.75 at Ladbrokes. Our model makes them 51% to win, with Portsmouth on 23% and the draw on 26%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich win | 1.75 (Ladbrokes) | 51% |
| Draw | 4.00 (bet365) | 26% |
| Portsmouth win | 4.75 (bet365) | 23% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 (bet365) | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 (bet365) | 52% |
Our prediction is 1-1, the likeliest single scoreline, though we make Norwich the more likely winner and a draw is in play. Norwich's attack projects at 1.69 goals to Portsmouth's 1.05, and we make it over 2.5 goals a shade better than even. For the player markets, Wright for a shot on target and Segecic for two or more shots both come with recent runs behind them.