Southampton welcome Bolton Wanderers to St. Mary's Stadium on Saturday 17 October, with kick-off at 3pm UK. The hosts sit 7th in the Championship and arrive off two straight wins. Bolton are 14th and have lost five of their ten league games. The standout fact is that Cyle Larin and Finn Azaz have both had a shot in every one of Southampton's ten league games this season.
Southampton have 16 points from 10 games, with six wins, two draws and two defeats. They have scored 21 and conceded 10. Their goals average of 2.1 a game is the 2nd most in the division, and the 3rd fewest conceded makes them one of the league's better-balanced sides. Both teams have scored in 80% of their games, the 2nd highest rate in the Championship.
The recent run is strong. Southampton won 1-0 at Norwich on Wednesday and 1-0 at home to Portsmouth the weekend before. The only blemish in their last five was a 2-1 defeat at Wrexham, and before that they beat Bristol City 4-1 at St. Mary's.
Bolton have 13 points from 10, with four wins, one draw and five defeats, and have scored 15 and conceded 18. Only five teams have conceded more per game, and their 70% over 2.5 goals rate is the 5th highest in the league. They have been up and down lately. They won 3-1 at Wolves on Tuesday, lost 2-1 at home to Stoke three days earlier, and won a 4-3 thriller at Norwich in September. On the road they have won their last two.
Bolton do get shots away, with 4.9 on target a game, the 7th most in the division. Our projection has Southampton at 20 total shots and Bolton at 11 here.
Southampton possible starting lineup:
Ramsdale; Bree, Schlotterbeck, Manning; Downes, Ward-Prowse; Azaz, Scienza, Akachukwu; Larin
Bolton Wanderers possible starting lineup:
Bazunu; Conway, Famewo, Toal, Larrazabal; Erhahon, Sheehan, Dalby; Gale, Rodrigues, Ito
Cyle Larin has had at least one shot in all ten league games this season, averaging 3.5 a game, the longest such run in the Championship. He has also committed at least one foul in six straight games and is 1.22 at Midnite to make it seven.
Finn Azaz has matched Larin with a shot in every game, at 2.2 a game, the 2nd-longest run in the division.
Flynn Downes has made at least one tackle in all ten games, averaging 2.6, the longest tackle run in the Championship.
Ryan Manning has committed a foul in five straight games and is 1.50 at Midnite to do it again.
For Bolton, Ethan Erhahon has made a tackle in nine straight games at 2.3 a game and has fouled in each of his last five, which is 1.30 at Midnite.
We back Southampton, who are 1.50 at Ladbrokes to win at home. Bolton are 5.75 at Coral and the draw is 4.75 at bet365. The model gives Southampton a 67% chance of winning, with the draw at 18% and Bolton at 14%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton to win | 1.50 (Ladbrokes) | 67% |
| Draw | 4.75 (bet365) | 18% |
| Bolton Wanderers to win | 5.75 (Coral) | 14% |
| Both teams to score | 1.55 (Ladbrokes) | 63% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 (bet365) | 89% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 (bet365) | 71% |
We expect 2.54 Southampton goals against 1.13 for Bolton, and our prediction is a 2-1 home win. Southampton score in most of the likeliest outcomes, and we give both teams scoring a 63% chance.
A draw is in play if the game stays tight, since 1-1 is level with 3-1 among the likeliest scorelines. On the player markets, Larin and Azaz arrive on ten-game shooting runs and Manning on a five-game foul run.
Prediction: Southampton 2-1 Bolton Wanderers