Swansea City, top of the Championship, host West Ham United, who sit 3rd, at the Swansea.com Stadium on Saturday 17 October (kick-off 3pm UK). Only four points separate the sides, and they have built their seasons in opposite ways: Swansea on the tightest defence in the division, West Ham on the most goals.
Swansea have conceded just 7 in 10 games, while West Ham have scored 29. The visitors are also the likelier winners according to our model, which makes this a proper test for the league leaders.
Swansea lead the Championship table with 23 points from 10 games: 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, 16 scored and 7 conceded. They have won four on the bounce, the latest a 1-0 success at Millwall on Tuesday, which followed a 2-1 home win over Norwich. Before that came a 2-1 win at Lincoln and a 3-1 home win against Burnley. Their one league loss in the last five was a 3-1 defeat at Southampton.
The defence is the story. Swansea concede 0.7 goals a game, the fewest in the league, and they have kept a clean sheet in half their matches, the highest rate in the division. They are also one of the cleanest sides for fouls, averaging 9.7 a game, the 3rd fewest.
West Ham are 3rd on 19 points, with 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat, and a goal tally of 29 that is the best in the league at 2.9 a game. Their last outing was a 6-0 win at Lincoln on Wednesday, a repeat of the 6-0 home win over Wrexham in September. Before Lincoln came a 1-1 home draw with QPR and a 2-2 draw at Millwall.
West Ham lead the league for shots on target at 6.4 a game and are 3rd for corners at 6.8. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of their games, the highest rate in the division. They have kept a clean sheet in 30% of matches, the 4th highest rate.
Swansea City possible starting lineup:
Vigouroux; Lissah, Cabango, Welsh, Tymon; Stamenić, Franco, Widell; Okopu, Idah, Yeo
West Ham United possible starting lineup:
Hermansen; Walker-Peters, Mavropanos, Kilman, Morato; Orford, Engels, Bowen; Solomon, Mukasa, Castellanos
Jarrod Bowen has had 3+ shots in each of his last 10 games, the longest run of its kind in the Championship, and he averages 4.2 a game. He has also put a shot on target in nine straight, priced at 1.50 at Ladbrokes, and he is 1.95 at Coral to make it 3+ shots again.
Taty Castellanos has managed 2+ shots in five consecutive games, averaging 3 a game over his nine appearances, and is 1.33 at bet365 to do it again.
Swansea's Melker Widell has had at least one shot in eight straight games and averages 1.6. He is 1.20 at bet365 to have a shot again.
Moussa Yeo has made at least one tackle in all 10 of Swansea's games, averaging 3.3, and has committed a foul in seven in a row.
The West Ham centre-back Konstantinos Mavropanos has made a tackle in nine straight, and our model rates him highly for a shot, with 1+ shots at 1.36 and 1+ on target at 2.63.
We back West Ham, who are 2.15 at Midnite to win. Swansea are 3.20 at Coral and the draw is 3.75 at bet365. Our model gives West Ham a 45% chance, Swansea 30% and the draw 26%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea City win | 3.20 (Coral) | 30% |
| Draw | 3.75 (bet365) | 26% |
| West Ham United win | 2.15 (Midnite) | 45% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 (bet365) | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 (bet365) | 58% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 (Midnite) | 81% |
We expect 1.33 goals from Swansea and 1.68 from West Ham. Our prediction is Swansea City 1-1 West Ham United, though we make West Ham the more likely winners, and a draw is in play. The next most likely scores are 1-2, 0-1 and 2-1.
West Ham are projected for 14.4 shots, 4.8 on target and 5.5 corners, against 12.4, 4.1 and 4.4 for Swansea. Both teams to score is 1.62 at bet365 and the model puts it at 61%, backed by West Ham's league-best 80% rate for over 2.5 goals.
Among the individual angles, Bowen's 3+ shots at 1.95 follows a run of 10 straight games. Kilman is 2.25 for a shot, and our model rates him likelier to have one than that price suggests.