Updated 22 October 2026.
Bolton Wanderers welcome Middlesbrough to the University of Bolton Stadium on Friday 23 October, with kick-off at 8pm UK. It is 15th against 3rd in the Championship table, and the visitors arrive with the best shots-on-target numbers in the division.
Bolton sit on 14 points from 11 games, with four wins, two draws and five defeats. Middlesbrough have 22 points and have lost only once all season. The hosts' job is to slow a side that scores in almost every game it plays.
Bolton have steadied after a run of four straight defeats, winning three of their last five, drawing one and losing one. The latest was a goalless draw at Southampton last Saturday, and before that came a 3-1 win at Wolves. The one loss in that spell was a 2-1 home defeat to Stoke.
The hosts have scored 15 and conceded 18, and they let in 1.64 a game, the 8th most in the division. They do get shots on target, 4.73 a game, and have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their matches. A 4-3 win at Norwich on 20 September shows they can be dragged into a shootout and come out on top.
Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last five, with two wins and three draws: a 2-2 draw at home to Cardiff last weekend, a 3-2 win at Stoke on 13 October, a 1-0 home win over Wolves and a 2-2 draw at Birmingham. They have scored 22 league goals, 2.00 a game and the 2nd most, and both teams have scored in 82% of their matches.
The shot count is the headline. They average 6.18 shots on target, the most in the Championship, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of their games. At the other end they are no fortress, with 16 conceded, though they are collecting cards at the lowest rate in the league, 1.09 a game.
Bolton Wanderers possible starting lineup:
Bazunu; Stephenson, Brunt, Toal, Famewo; Simons, Sheehan, Larrazabal; Gale, Ito, Dalby
Middlesbrough possible starting lineup:
Vitek; Brittain, Phillips, Ayling, Borges; Malanda, Morris, McGree; Cozier-Duberry, Conway, Joseph
Aidan Morris has made at least one tackle in ten straight games, averaging 3.5 a game over that run, and the one-plus tackle price is 1.06 at bet365. Teammate Riley McGree has tackled in four in a row and is 1.20.
Amario Cozier-Duberry has had a shot in six straight games at four a game, and 1.03 at midnite is there for a one-plus shot.
For Bolton, S. Dalby has put a shot on target in four straight games and is 1.80 at bet365 to do it again. Akin Famewo has committed a foul in five straight and is 1.44 at bet365, and our model rates him the likeliest Bolton player to be pulled up for a foul.
At a bigger price, Middlesbrough's Ashley Phillips has had a shot in four straight games and is 2.10 at Coral, and our model also fancies him for two or more fouls at 4.50.
We back Middlesbrough, who are 1.57 at Ladbrokes to win. Bolton are 5.50 at bet365 and the draw is 4.40 at Ladbrokes.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton Wanderers win | 5.50 (bet365) | 22% |
| Draw | 4.40 (Ladbrokes) | 22% |
| Middlesbrough win | 1.57 (Ladbrokes) | 56% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 (bet365) | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 (bet365) | 64% |
Our model has Middlesbrough on 2.06 expected goals against 1.23 for Bolton. 1-1 is the likeliest score, though we make Middlesbrough the most likely winners and 1-2 is almost as likely as the draw. Both teams to score is 62% and over 2.5 goals 64%, which fits two sides that have both been involved in plenty of goals.
If you want a combination, a bet builder of McGree to tackle, Famewo to foul, Dalby to have a shot on target and Neto Borges to have a shot comes to 4.67 at the best available prices.
Statz prediction: Bolton Wanderers 1-1 Middlesbrough
Kick-off is at 8pm UK on Friday 23 October 2026 at the University of Bolton Stadium.
We predict a 1-1 draw as the likeliest score, though we make Middlesbrough the most likely winners at 56%, with Bolton on 22% and the draw on 22%.
Middlesbrough are favourites at 1.57 with Ladbrokes. Bolton are 5.50 at bet365 and the draw is 4.40 at Ladbrokes.
Our model gives both teams to score a 62% chance, and bet365 offer 1.57. Both teams have scored in 82% of Middlesbrough's games this season.
Middlesbrough are 3rd with 22 points from 11 games. Bolton are 15th with 14 points from 11 games.
Aidan Morris has made at least one tackle in ten straight games, averaging 3.5 tackles a game.
Bolton: Bazunu; Stephenson, Brunt, Toal, Famewo; Simons, Sheehan, Larrazabal; Gale, Ito, Dalby. Middlesbrough: Vitek; Brittain, Phillips, Ayling, Borges; Malanda, Morris, McGree; Cozier-Duberry, Conway, Joseph.