Portsmouth vs Millwall Predictions, Team News and Betting Tips

Portsmouth host Millwall at Fratton Park on Saturday 24 October, with kick-off at 12:30 UK. The two clubs are level on 15 points from 11 games, Portsmouth 13th in the Championship and Millwall 12th, each with four wins, three draws and four defeats. Where they differ is in how the goals have gone: Portsmouth have scored 14 and conceded 14, while Millwall have scored 18 and let in 18.

Both sides have a draw in their recent form and both have players on long personal runs, which is where most of the interest sits.

How the teams arrive

Portsmouth are unbeaten in three, with two wins by the odd goal and a draw. They beat Sheffield United 3-2 at home on 14 October, won 1-0 at Norwich on 17 October, then drew 1-1 at Wolves on Tuesday. Before that came a 1-0 defeat at Southampton. At the back they are in good shape, with the 7th fewest goals conceded in the division and clean sheets in 27% of their games, the 7th highest rate. Up front it is thinner: 1.27 goals a game is the 7th fewest. They also win plenty of corners, 6 a game, the 5th most in the league, and have collected only the 4th fewest cards.

Millwall have drawn three of their last five. They drew 2-2 with Lincoln on 17 October after a 1-0 home defeat to Swansea, and before that won 1-0 at Preston. Their goals-for figure of 1.64 a game is the 6th most in the Championship, and 73% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals, the 2nd highest rate. Yet they have kept clean sheets in 36% of games, the 2nd highest, so the picture is of a side that is either shutting games out or trading goals. They also commit plenty of fouls, 11.82 a game, the 5th most.

Predicted lineups

Portsmouth possible starting lineup:
Schmid; Poole, Devlin, Meghoma, Dia; Mohamed, Adams; Kamara, Segecic, Shade; Shein

Millwall possible starting lineup:
Marschall; Sturge, Crama, Cooper, Taylor; Metcalfe, Mazou-Sacko; Sykes, Lisbie, Neghli; Dykes

Players to watch

Adrian Segecic has had at least one shot in all 11 of Portsmouth's games, averaging 2.9 a match, and he is 1.06 at bet365 to make it 12. His run is the 4th longest of its kind in the Championship.

Ebou Adams has made at least one tackle in every game this season, averaging 2.9, and Jenson Metcalfe has done the same for Millwall at 2.3 a game.

Lyndon Dykes has had a shot in eight straight games, averaging 2 a match, and is 1.14 at bet365 to extend that. Camiel Neghli is on seven in a row at 1.33.

Jake Cooper has committed two or more fouls in four straight games, averaging 2.3, and has committed at least one foul in all five of his last five. Two or more is 3.00 at Midnite and one or more is 1.44.

Match Leaders

Odds and Statz prediction

We make this a three-way contest with nothing to separate the sides: Portsmouth and Millwall are each given a 36% chance of winning, and the draw 28%. The bookmakers lean slightly to the hosts at 2.45 with Ladbrokes, with the draw at 3.40 (Midnite) and Millwall at 2.88 (BoyleSports).

Our prediction is a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single score at 14%. Each side is projected to score 1.28 goals, and both teams scoring is a 53% chance.

The player markets are where the strongest recent form sits. Segecic at 1.06 and Dykes at 1.14 for a shot each have the longest runs behind them, and Cooper's foul count is a longer-priced option on the Millwall side.