AFC Bournemouth host Everton at the Vitality Stadium on Saturday 29 August, kicking off at 3:00pm UK time in the Premier League's second gameweek. Everton have made the brightest of starts, following a 2-0 opening-weekend win over Crystal Palace with a 4-0 Carabao Cup victory at Preston North End. Bournemouth pushed hard at Manchester City before losing 2-1.
The Statz model still leans towards the hosts, projecting 1.71 goals for Bournemouth against 1.22 for Everton and giving the home side the bigger share of the shots at 15.64 projected to 10.05. The full data set is on the AFC Bournemouth vs Everton match page.
The XIs below are predicted lineups, not confirmed team news. This section will be updated as soon as the official team sheets land, usually around an hour before kick-off.
Djordje Petrovic; Adam Smith, James Hill, António Silva, Adrien Truffert; Lewis Cook, Alex Scott; Rayan, Justin Kluivert, Marcus Tavernier; Evanilson.
Evanilson is predicted to lead the line, with Justin Kluivert in the central attacking role and Rayan and Marcus Tavernier either side of him.
Jordan Pickford; Vitaliy Mykolenko, Jarrad Branthwaite, James Tarkowski, Merlin Röhl; Hayden Hackney, Harrison Armstrong; Tyrique George, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Iliman Ndiaye; Thierno Barry.
Everton's predicted XI has Thierno Barry up front, with Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Iliman Ndiaye and Tyrique George behind him and Hayden Hackney partnering Harrison Armstrong in midfield.
Bournemouth's 2-1 defeat at Manchester City ended a nine-match unbeaten run in all competitions, a stretch of four wins and five draws that included a 1-1 home draw with City in May and a 3-0 win over Crystal Palace.
Everton have won both matches this season without conceding: 2-0 against Crystal Palace in the league, then 4-0 at Preston North End in the Carabao Cup. Before the summer break their form was patchier, with defeats to Tottenham Hotspur and Sunderland in their final home-and-away stretch of last season.
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall has taken 13 shots across his last five appearances, an average of 2.6 per game, including one seven-shot match. Hayden Hackney matches him with 13 shots in his last five, including an eight-shot game.
For Bournemouth, Adam Smith has committed a foul in every one of his last five matches, seven in total, and Justin Kluivert has landed a shot on target in four of his last five.
At team level, Everton top the early goals-against table with none conceded, the only rank-one figure in the league on that measure, and they committed just five fouls in gameweek one, the fewest in the division. Bournemouth's opener saw both teams score and clear 2.5 goals. Referee Chris Kavanagh has taken charge of three games this season, averaging 4 yellow cards and 19.67 fouls per match.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The model's clearest disagreements with the market sit in the fouls column, and mostly on the Bournemouth side. Adam Smith to commit 1+ foul was 1.44 at the time of writing; the model ranks him second most likely in the fixture to land it, while the market prices him 17th. Rayan to commit 1+ foul was 1.57 at the time of writing, seventh by model likelihood against 21st by price, and his 2+ fouls line was 3.75, sixth by likelihood against 21st.
The referee context supports the physical angles: Chris Kavanagh's three games this season have averaged 19.67 fouls and 4 yellow cards.
For a longshot, Adrien Truffert to register 1+ shot on target was 5.50 at the time of writing, with the model ranking him fourth most likely in the match against a market rank of 20th. Prices move quickly in these markets, so treat every quote as at the time of writing, and compare the full set of numbers on our Premier League projections page.
Everton's start has been emphatic at both ends of the pitch, but the model projects Bournemouth to carry the greater attacking threat here, ahead on projected goals, shots and corners. The fouls market is the value hunting ground, led by Adam Smith and Rayan on the home side, with Chris Kavanagh's early-season card and foul averages adding context. Confirmed team news will replace the predicted XIs above once the sheets land, so check the match page nearer kick-off.