Aston Villa host Arsenal at Villa Park on Monday 31 August, closing out Gameweek 2 of the Premier League season with a 20:00 UK kick-off.
The opening weekend could hardly have separated these sides more sharply. Villa were beaten 4-0 at Brighton, and one game in they rank 20th of 20 for goals conceded per game (4) and 20th for shots on target (0). Arsenal beat Coventry City 3-0 with six shots on target, 3rd most per game in the division so far, and eight corners, the most. The Statz model expects the gap to show again: it projects 1.82 goals for Arsenal against 0.84 for Villa. Full live data for this game sits on the Aston Villa vs Arsenal match page.
No team sheets yet. The predicted XIs for this fixture will be published here once the team news lands, typically in the hour before kick-off, so treat every player angle in this preview as conditional on the man starting.
The data flags a heavy Arsenal presence. Martin Ødegaard has taken 11 shots across his last five games, 2.2 per game, with at least one in every one. Christos Tzolis has managed two or more shots in each of his last five, 15 in total - three per game, including a five-shot game. Kai Havertz has hit the target in all five of his most recent outings, and Bukayo Saka has made at least one tackle in every one of his last five, 12 in all.
On the Villa side, the model's value scan keeps returning to Ollie Watkins, Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres - more on those below.
Villa's last ten read five wins, one draw and four defeats, and the freshest result is the ugliest of them: 4-0 at Brighton on the opening weekend. The run-in to last season was much stronger - a 2-1 win at Manchester City, a 3-0 Europa League win at Freiburg and a 4-2 win over Liverpool at Villa Park - which is exactly why Monday feels like a test of which version turns up.
Arsenal have lost once in their last ten, winning seven and drawing two. Their last five read 3-0 against Coventry City, 1-1 away at Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League, 2-1 at Crystal Palace, 1-0 against Burnley and 1-0 at West Ham: three clean sheets in that run, and never more than one goal conceded in any of the five.
One game into the league season, Arsenal rank 2nd of 20 for goals scored per game (3) and 1st for goals conceded (0).
No player in this fixture carries an active streak at the thresholds Statz tracks, so the volume numbers carry the section.
Tzolis's 15 shots across five games, at three per game, is the biggest shot count the data flags here, and Ødegaard's 11 is not far behind. Havertz's five straight games with a shot on target add up to eight in total, 1.6 per game. Saka's 12 tackles across his last five, 2.4 per game, is a striking number for a forward.
For Villa, the model ranks Tyrone Mings 3rd in this match on its list of players likeliest to land a shot on target, a name the market clearly does not expect to see there.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
With no team sheets yet, every angle below applies only if he starts.
The standout gap is Ollie Watkins for 1+ fouls, priced at 1.80 at the time of writing. The model ranks Watkins 2nd likeliest in this match to commit a foul; the market prices him 16th, a 14-place disparity and the biggest the model found for this fixture.
Tyrone Mings offers two related angles: 1+ shot on target at 6.50 at the time of writing, where the model ranks him 3rd likeliest against a market price rank of 16, and 1+ shots at 2.75, ranked 6th likeliest against 16th on price.
Pau Torres at 10.00 for 2+ fouls at the time of writing (model likelihood rank 8, market price rank 20) and Christos Tzolis at 3.75 for 2+ fouls (rank 3 against 14) round out the list, with the same start-dependent caveat on both.
There may also be something in cards. Villa picked up four cards in their opener, 2nd of 20 per game so far, and referee Jarred Gillett's one game in our season sample produced 22 fouls and three yellow cards.
For the full market-by-market picture across the gameweek, see the Statz fixture projections tool.
The model makes Arsenal clear favourites on the road: 1.82 projected goals to 0.84, 5.08 shots on target to 3.20 and the corner count in their favour too, 5.11 to 4.22.
Villa's case rests on the version of the side that beat Manchester City and Liverpool in the spring showing up rather than the one that produced no shots on target at Brighton.
The value list is Villa-heavy, led by Watkins in the fouls market, and all of it is conditional on team news. Check back for the predicted XIs once the team sheets land, and follow the match page for live stats and prices.