Manchester United welcome newly promoted Ipswich Town to Old Trafford on Sunday 30 August for Gameweek 2 of the Premier League season, with kick-off at 16:30 UK time.
The opening weekend gave this fixture an edge it was not supposed to have. United lost 2-0 at Hull City without registering a goal, while Ipswich beat Sunderland 2-1 and then put three past Leicester City in the Carabao Cup. The Statz model is unmoved by any of that: it projects 2.36 goals for the hosts against 0.91 for the visitors, and more than double the shots on target. Full live data for this game sits on the Manchester United vs Ipswich Town match page.
Neither side has released a team sheet yet. The predicted XIs for this fixture will be published here once the team news lands, typically in the hour before kick-off, so treat every player angle in this preview as conditional on the man starting.
The data does flag a few names to watch. Youri Tielemans has had at least one shot in each of his last five appearances for United, taking 10 in total across those games - two per game. For Ipswich, Jack Clarke has also had a shot in all five of his most recent outings, eight in total, while Cédric Kipré has committed at least one foul in every one of his last five, including a three-foul game in that run.
United's last ten matches read six wins, two draws and two defeats, but the defeat that matters is the freshest: 2-0 at Hull City on the opening weekend. Before that they had closed last season strongly, beating Liverpool 3-2 and Nottingham Forest 3-2 at Old Trafford and winning 3-0 at Brighton.
Ipswich have won six, drawn three and lost just once across their last ten, and they arrive on a three-match winning run: 3-0 against Queens Park Rangers to close out their Championship promotion season, 2-1 against Sunderland on their Premier League return, and 3-1 against Leicester City in the Carabao Cup in midweek.
One league game is a thin sample, but for what it is worth Ipswich rank 5th of 20 for goals scored per game (2) while United rank 15th (0), and Ipswich's opener landed both of the markers the model tracks early in a season: both teams scored and the game cleared 2.5 goals.
No player on either side carries an active streak at the thresholds Statz tracks, so the interest is in the shorter-term volume numbers.
Tielemans is the standout: 10 shots across his last five games, at least one in every one of them, and a high of four in a single match in that run. Clarke's five-game shot count of eight works out at 1.6 per game, and it also includes a four-shot game.
At the other end of the ledger, the model's foul rankings make Patrick Dorgu the likeliest player in this match to commit two or more fouls, while Kipré tops its list for at least one foul. Harry Maguire and Jacob Greaves both sit in the top five on the two-plus fouls likelihood list.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Every value angle the model finds in this fixture is in the fouls market, and with no team sheets yet, each one applies only if he starts.
The widest gap between model and market is Jacob Greaves for 2+ fouls, priced at 4.33 at the time of writing. The model ranks Greaves 4th likeliest in this match to commit two fouls; the market prices him 18th, a 14-place disparity. Harry Maguire is a similar story on the United side: 5.00 at the time of writing for 2+ fouls, with the model ranking him 5th likeliest against a market price rank of 18.
Patrick Dorgu is the model's top-ranked player in this game for 2+ fouls and was 3.75 at the time of writing, while Kipré, its top-ranked name for 1+ fouls, was 1.44. The same caveat applies to both: these are start-dependent plays.
Craig Pawson is the referee, and he has no games in our season sample yet, so there is no whistle-count lean either way.
For the full market-by-market picture across the weekend, see the Statz fixture projections tool.
The model reads this as a comfortable home afternoon in everything except the scoreline United produced at Hull: 2.36 projected goals for Manchester United against 0.91 for Ipswich Town, with 7.34 shots on target to 2.97.
Ipswich's early numbers say they can contribute to a game, though - two goals per game so far, and an opener that produced goals at both ends.
The betting interest is concentrated in fouls, where the model likes four prices, all conditional on team news. Check back for the predicted XIs once the team sheets land, and follow the match page for live stats and prices.