Sunderland host Fulham at the Stadium of Light on Sunday 30 August, kick-off 14:00 UK time. Both sides opened their Premier League campaigns with narrow defeats: Sunderland went down 2-1 at Ipswich, while Fulham lost a five-goal thriller 3-2 at home to Chelsea.
So both arrive chasing their first points of the season, and the opening round left both with the same profile: goals scored, goals conceded, nothing to show for it. The live numbers for this fixture are on the match page.
Predicted XI data for this fixture has not landed yet, which is normal at this range. We will update this section with the predicted teams, and again when the official team sheets are confirmed around an hour before kick-off.
The five-game form data does point to the men likely to shape it. For Sunderland, Chris Rigg has been their most reliable source of shots from midfield and Thomas Meunier their busiest defender. For Fulham, Emile Smith Rowe has been ever-present in the shot counts. Their numbers are below.
Sunderland's 2-1 defeat at Ipswich last weekend snapped a decent run: before the summer they beat Chelsea 2-1, won 3-1 at Everton and drew with Manchester United (0-0) and Wolves (1-1) in their final four fixtures of last season. Their last ten matches show four wins, four defeats and two draws, but that Chelsea result shows what this side can do at home.
Fulham's 3-2 loss to Chelsea extended a mixed sequence: they ended last season with a 2-0 win over Newcastle, a 1-1 draw at Wolves, a 0-1 home defeat to Bournemouth and a 3-0 loss at Arsenal. One round in, though, their attacking numbers stand out: 3rd of 20 for shots on target (6 per game) and 4th for corners (6 per game).
No player in this fixture holds an active streak at Statz's tracked thresholds, but three five-game form lines stand out.
Thomas Meunier has committed a foul in every one of his last five appearances, 11 fouls in total at an average of 2.2 per game, including a five-foul match. Chris Rigg has had at least one shot in all five of his last five, 8 shots in total at 1.6 per game. And Emile Smith Rowe has also had a shot in every one of his last five matches.
At team level, Sunderland picked up 3 cards on opening weekend, 3rd most in the league, and committed 14 fouls, 6th of 20.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The headline angle is goals at both ends. Both of these teams' openers saw both sides score and clear 2.5 goals, and while the model's own goal projections are modest, 1.24 for Sunderland and 1.16 for Fulham at the time of writing, the shape of both opening performances leant attacking.
With no predicted XIs in yet, every player angle below carries the same caveat: only if he starts. Nordi Mukiele for 1+ shot was 1.73 at the time of writing, with the Statz model ranking him 3rd most likely in the match against a market price rank of 16th, and the same price was available on him for 1+ foul. Granit Xhaka for 1+ foul was 1.83 at the time of writing, ranked 7th by the model against 18th by the market. On the Fulham side, Calvin Bassey for 2+ fouls was 4 at the time of writing, with the model ranking him 4th most likely against a market rank of 16th. Again: each of those is worth touching only if he starts, so wait for the team sheets.
The full projection board for the round is on the Premier League projections page.
This is a tight match on the numbers, with the model projecting 1.24 goals for Sunderland and 1.16 for Fulham at the time of writing. Both openers carried goals at each end, Fulham's shot and corner volume ranked among the league's best in round one, and Sunderland's home form at the end of last season included a win over Chelsea. Goals angles first, then the foul lines, but hold the player markets until the XIs are confirmed.