Newcastle United host Hull City at 15:00 UK on Saturday 19 September. Hull City are fourth on eight points. Newcastle United are twelfth on five.
The table is not telling the truth about either of them.
Hull City have been the story of the season so far, beating Manchester United 2-0, winning at Coventry City, drawing with Aston Villa and taking a point at Chelsea. But the underlying numbers say tenth, not fourth: 0.91 expected goals created a game, 1.44 conceded, and a gap of plus four between points and expected points - the largest overperformance in the division. Five scored, two conceded, from numbers that suggest the opposite.
Newcastle United have their own problem, and it is the mirror image. They have the lowest expected points total in the Premier League at 2.4, conceding 2.05 expected goals a game, and were beaten 4-1 at Leeds United on Monday. Before that: 2-0 at Tottenham Hotspur, 2-2 with AFC Bournemouth, and cup wins over West Bromwich Albion and Millwall.
The two have not met recently, Hull City having come up this summer.
The model makes Newcastle United 62 percent at 8/5, 2.8 points clear of its price, and it is the only result call in the whole round that we rate above the market. That is our Premier League betting predictions selection.
The logic is regression on both sides. Hull City are winning games their chance numbers say they should be losing, and that does not last a season. Newcastle United are losing games their numbers say are closer than the scorelines - though a 4-1 defeat at Elland Road is not easily explained away as bad luck.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee is Tony Harrington, one of the quieter appointments this weekend.
Hull City's overperformance is set out in full in our Gameweek 4 xG review, and the league-wide table is on the Premier League xG table. Per-90 player numbers are on the Premier League player stats page.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Hull City have earned their points and will not keep earning them at this rate. Newcastle United are a mess at the back but should have far too much at home against a side creating 0.91 expected goals a game.
Prediction: Newcastle United 2-0 Hull City.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes a settled record for every column, win or lose.