Tottenham Hotspur host Aston Villa at 12:30 UK on Saturday 19 September. Tottenham Hotspur are seventeenth with two points. Aston Villa are nineteenth with one.
Between them they have scored one Premier League goal all season.
Tottenham Hotspur have played four league games and failed to score in every one: 0-2 at home to Newcastle United, 0-0 at Nottingham Forest and 0-0 with Everton among them. They can score in cup football - five against Charlton Athletic, one at Anfield on Tuesday - but the league has been a closed door for a month. Their expected goals figure of 0.94 a game says the chances are thin as well as the finishing.
Aston Villa create less still. 0.78 expected goals a game is the lowest in the division, and one goal in four league matches is the return. They also save it for the cups: three at Club Brugge in the Champions League, three at Coventry City on Tuesday. In the league, one goal scored and seven conceded.
The head to head favours the visitors. Aston Villa have won four of the last five meetings, including 2-1 at this ground in January and 2-1 in October. Season numbers for both are on the Premier League xG table.
The model makes under 2.5 goals 50 percent at evens, 2.7 points clear of its price, and no goals at both ends 46 percent at 11/10. Aston Villa to win is 29 percent at 15/4, also above its price and the only result call worth a look.
Under 2.5 is our selection on the Premier League betting predictions this week - one of five unders in a ten-fixture round.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee is Samuel Barrott, averaging 3.53 cards and 19.34 fouls per game across 38 matches in a rolling two-season window. That is the lowest foul count of any Premier League official this weekend: a quiet whistle for a quiet game.
The honest case against the under: a goalless draw is not the only way this stays low, and 2-1 beats it. Aston Villa have scored twice in each of their last two cup outings, so the drought is a league phenomenon rather than a broken attack. Per-90 numbers for both squads are on the Premier League player stats page.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Two sides who cannot score, at half twelve on a Saturday. Aston Villa have the better record in the fixture and the worse underlying attack; Tottenham Hotspur have home advantage and a month without a league goal. The value is in the goal total, not the result.
Prediction: Tottenham Hotspur 1-1 Aston Villa.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes a settled record for every column, win or lose.