Arsenal host Leeds United at the Emirates Stadium on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 12:30 UK, and the meeting puts a home side stung by a heavy defeat against an unbeaten visiting side who have drawn three of their five league games. Arsenal sit 2nd on 12 points from five, Leeds 5th on 9, and the Gunners are coming off a 3-0 loss at Brighton that stopped a run of eight wins in nine.
Leeds, meanwhile, have the stingiest defence in the division and a habit of sharing the spoils. For Arsenal, the question is how quickly they put the Brighton game behind them against a side who rarely concede.
Arsenal have won four of their five Premier League matches, scoring 8 and conceding 4. Their goals record is the 6th most in the league at 1.6 a game, and at the back they have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games, the highest rate in the division. That is why the loss at Brighton stands out: Brighton 3-0 Arsenal was their first league defeat of the season.
Before that came a run of wins in every competition. They beat Ipswich 4-2 in the Carabao Cup, won 2-0 at Sunderland, took a 1-0 win at Napoli in the Champions League and opened the month with a 2-1 home win over Chelsea.
Leeds are unbeaten in the league, with two wins and three draws from five. They have conceded just three goals, the fewest in the division at 0.6 a game, and they have shared the points in their last two outings in the league, 0-0 with Palace most recently, after a 4-1 win over Newcastle. Earlier this month came a 6-3 defeat at Chelsea in the Carabao Cup, and a 1-1 draw at Brighton before that. Both teams to score has landed in 60% of their games, the 4th highest rate in the league, and they average 1.4 goals themselves, the 8th most in the Premier League.
One contrast to watch: only 20% of Arsenal's games have seen both sides score, the 3rd lowest rate, while 60% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals, the 4th highest. Leeds sit on the other side of that, with over 2.5 landing in just 20% of their games, the 2nd lowest.
Arsenal possible starting lineup:
Raya; Timber, Mosquera, Gabriel Magalhães, Calafiori; Rice, Bruno Guimarães, Ødegaard; Saka, Gyökeres, Eze
Leeds United possible starting lineup:
Trafford; Bogle, Elvedi, Muharemović, Justin; Ampadu, Tanaka, Stach; Gudmundsson, Okafor; Calvert-Lewin
Bukayo Saka has had a shot on target in each of his five games this season, averaging 1.8 a game, and he is 1.33 at Ladbrokes to make it six. He has also managed two or more shots in all five, at 3.0 a game, and is 1.18 at bet365 to do it again.
Viktor Gyökeres has landed a shot on target in each of his last five and is 1.40 at bet365 for another. Riccardo Calafiori has had at least one shot in five straight, 1.14 at bet365, and a tackle in each of them as well.
For Leeds, James Justin has made at least two tackles in five straight, averaging 3.2 a game, and is 1.40 at bet365 to keep that going. Anton Stach shares that run on two tackles, at 2.6 a game, and has also had a shot in every game, at 1.4 a game. Up front, Dominic Calvert-Lewin has had at least one shot in five straight, 2.2 a game, and is 1.18 at bet365 for a sixth.
We back Arsenal to win at 1.40 with bet365, and the model gives them a 66% chance. Leeds are 8.50 at Midnite.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 1.40 (bet365) | 66% |
| Draw | 5.00 (bet365) | 22% |
| Leeds win | 8.50 (Midnite) | 12% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 (bet365) | 43% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 (bet365) | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 (bet365) | 48% |
We expect Arsenal 1-0, with 2-0 almost as likely, and our model projects 1.92 goals for the hosts against 0.69 for Leeds. Arsenal are projected to keep a clean sheet half the time, so a draw is in play, but we make a home win the likeliest result by a distance. Shot-wise, we project Arsenal for 17.7 shots, 5.8 of them on target, to 8.6 and 2.8 for Leeds.
The player markets carry the interest, with Saka, Gyökeres and Calafiori all riding five-game runs on shots. A four-leg builder pairs Gyökeres to have a shot on target, Calafiori to have a shot, Justin to make two tackles and Bogle to commit a foul at a combined 2.97. Referee Paul Tierney takes charge, with two games of the season behind him.