Coventry City host Newcastle United at The Coventry Building Society Arena on Monday 12 October, with kick-off at 8pm UK. The hosts are 19th in the Premier League and have scored one goal in five league games. Newcastle are 11th and have scored nine, so the question is whether Coventry can find anything at the other end.
Coventry have 3 points from five, with a 1-0 win at Forest on 19 September the only thing to show for it. Newcastle sit on 8 points and arrive from a 2-1 win over Hull.
Coventry's season so far is a story of an attack that has not arrived. They have scored 1 goal and conceded 10 in the league, and their goals-for average of 0.2 per game is the fewest in the division. They also average just 3.2 shots on target a game, the 2nd fewest.
The run before the win at Forest was rough: a 0-5 home defeat to Brighton, a 1-3 Carabao Cup loss to Villa and a 1-0 defeat at Man City before that. They also lost 0-1 at home to Hull on the opening weekend. The one bright spot is the 1-0 win at Forest, and Coventry have kept a clean sheet in 20% of league games, the 10th highest rate.
Newcastle have been more entertaining. They won 2-0 at Spurs, drew 2-2 with Bournemouth, then edged a Carabao Cup tie 1-0 at Millwall. A 4-1 loss at Leeds was the low point before the 2-1 win over Hull.
Newcastle score 1.8 goals a game, the 5th most in the league, and both teams have scored in 80% of their league games, the 3rd highest rate. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of their games, the 2nd highest. They are not tight at the back, though: 1.8 conceded per game is the 8th most.
Coventry City possible starting lineup:
Rushworth; Van Ewijk, Pinnock, Thomas, Mfuni, Dasilva; Grimes, Onyeka, Rudoni; Tchaouna, Thomas-Asante
Newcastle United possible starting lineup:
Hornicek; Dedić, Thiaw, Botman, Hall; Miley, González, Murphy; Barnes, Fernández-Pardo, Wissa
Jack Rudoni has had at least one shot in each of Coventry's five league games, at 1.2 per game, and he is 1.25 at bet365 to make it six. His team-mate Loum Tchaouna has done the same in four straight games and is also 1.25 at bet365.
Frank Onyeka has committed a foul in four straight games, averaging 1.8, and is 1.20 at Ladbrokes to do it again.
For Newcastle, Lewis Hall has made a tackle in five straight and a shot in four, averaging 2.6 tackles per game. Joe Willock has taken two or more shots in four in a row, at 2.3 per game, and is 1.73 at Ladbrokes for another.
We back Newcastle United at 2.20 with bet365, and our model gives them a 44% chance of winning against 31% for Coventry. The tightest games tend to drift toward 1-1 and that score is the single likeliest one here, so a draw is in play, but the model still leans towards the visitors.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry City win | 3.20 (BoyleSports) | 31% |
| Draw | 3.60 (bet365) | 25% |
| Newcastle United win | 2.20 (bet365) | 44% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 (bet365) | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 (bet365) | 57% |
We project 1.63 goals for Newcastle and 1.33 for Coventry, which points to goals at both ends. Newcastle's 80% both-teams-to-score rate and the 60% we give it back that up, and over 1.5 goals is 1.20 at bet365 with an 80% chance from us.
1-1 is the likeliest score, though we make Newcastle slightly more likely to win. Our prediction is Coventry City 1-1 Newcastle United.