Ipswich Town welcome Fulham to Portman Road on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 3pm UK, and the early-season table says one thing while the model says another. Ipswich sit 11th on 6 points from five games, while Fulham are 19th on 2 points with no win yet. Yet our numbers make the visitors slightly more likely to take the points.
Both sides have been leaking goals and scoring them, which is why this one has the look of an open afternoon. Ipswich have played in a league table that has them 11th, but they come in on a run of three straight defeats.
Ipswich have lost three on the spin. They went down 1-0 at Everton on 19 September, in between losing 2-4 to Arsenal in the Carabao Cup. Before that came a 3-2 win at Palace, their only victory in the last five, and a 0-2 home defeat to Liverpool. The goals against column is the worry: 11 conceded in five league games, with only two sides in the division conceding more per game.
At the other end Ipswich have scored 7 league goals and rank 8th for goals scored per game. Both teams have scored in 60% of their matches, the 4th highest rate in the division, and Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Ipswich games, also the 4th highest.
Fulham have not lost in their last three, though they have not won either. They drew 1-1 with Man Utd most recently, beat West Ham 3-2 in the Carabao Cup and held Liverpool to a 0-0 draw at Anfield. Before that came a 2-3 home loss to Palace and a 1-0 defeat at Sunderland.
Fulham's attack has been quiet, with 5 league goals and the 5th fewest per game in the division. They do win plenty of set pieces, though, averaging the 5th most corners in the league, and they keep clean sheets in 20% of games.
Ipswich Town possible starting lineup:
Walton; Ouattara, Diop, O'Shea, Davis; Lukić, Palacios; Clarke, Enciso, Philogene; Emersonn
Fulham possible starting lineup:
Leno; Castagne, Affengruber, Bassey, Robinson; Berge, Charles; Bobb, Iwobi, King; GarcÃa
Julio Enciso has had 2 or more shots in each of Ipswich's five league games, averaging 3.4 a match, and he is 1.17 at bet365 to keep that going. He is the most reliable source of Ipswich shooting right now.
Gonzalo GarcÃa is the Fulham name to know. He has had a shot in five straight games at 3.0 a match, and he has cleared two shots in four of his last five, with a best of five in one game. He is 1.20 at bet365 for 2 or more shots.
Josh King has had 2 or more shots in five in a row, averaging 2.8, and is 1.40 at Ladbrokes. His run ranks 2nd in the division.
Antonee Robinson has made 2 or more tackles in five consecutive games at 2.6 a match, and is 1.33 at bet365.
Saša Lukić has committed a foul in each of Ipswich's five league games, averaging 2.2, and has made at least one tackle in all five too. He is the engine of Ipswich's midfield battle.
We lean towards Fulham, at 2.50 with bet365, with Ipswich at 2.80 and the draw 3.50 at Ladbrokes. Goals look likely: Both teams to score is 1.62 at Midnite, and Over 2.5 goals is 1.73 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Town to win | 2.80 (bet365) | 34% |
| Draw | 3.50 (Ladbrokes) | 26% |
| Fulham to win | 2.50 (bet365) | 40% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 (Midnite) | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 (bet365) | 55% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 (Midnite) | 79% |
Our prediction is a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single scoreline at 12%, though we make Fulham slightly more likely to win the match. The model projects 1.38 goals for Ipswich and 1.51 for Fulham, and a draw is firmly in play.
The player markets offer the sharper angles. GarcÃa and King both come in with five-game shot runs, and Enciso has done the same for Ipswich. Ipswich also rank 10th in the division for fouls, so their foul numbers are worth a look, with Lukić and Palacios among the likeliest to be whistled. Referee Lewis Smith has averaged 2.75 yellow cards in his four games this season.