Fulham, 20th in the Premier League and still without a league win, host 8th-placed Hull City at Craven Cottage on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 3pm UK. The hosts have two points from six games, while Hull arrive with nine and have lost only once in the league.
Fulham have scored six and conceded ten, while Hull have kept a clean sheet in half their league games.
Fulham have drawn two and lost four of their six league games. Their latest outing was a 2-1 defeat at Ipswich last Saturday, and before that came a 1-1 draw with Man Utd at home. A goalless draw at Liverpool was the best result of the run, and the 3-2 home loss to Palace on 5 September was the most open. Their only win of the run came in the Carabao Cup, 3-2 at West Ham.
The shape of their season is odd. Fulham's matches go both ways, with both teams scoring in 67% of them, the 4th highest rate in the league, yet they score just one per game. They put 4.5 shots on target per game, the 10th fewest, and sit 5th for corners at 5.5 a match.
Hull are 8th with two wins, three draws and one defeat. They drew 2-2 at home to Everton on Sunday, lost 2-1 at Newcastle and drew 2-2 at Chelsea. Their league record is built on defence: one goal conceded per game, the 6th fewest, and clean sheets in 50% of games, the 2nd highest rate in the division.
Hull are also the most-carded side in the league at 3.33 a game. Referee Chris Kavanagh has averaged five yellow cards across his four games this season.
Fulham possible starting lineup:
Leno; Tete, Affengruber, Bassey, Sessegnon; Berge, Bobb, Charles; Iwobi, King, GarcÃa
Hull City possible starting lineup:
Tzolakis; Coyle, Egan, Ajayi, Giles; Mendy, Slater, Crooks; Thomas, Gelhardt, McBurnie
Gonzalo GarcÃa has had at least one shot in all six Fulham league games, averaging three per game, and is 1.02 at midnite for a shot in this one.
Calvin Bassey has made at least one tackle in six straight games at 1.7 a game, and is 1.22 at bet365 to do it again.
Ryan Sessegnon has had a shot in four straight games and is 1.36 at bet365. Hull winger Mohamed Belloumi has put in two or more shots in four straight games and is 1.44 at bet365.
Oliver McBurnie has committed a foul in six straight games, averaging 1.7, and is 1.25 at Ladbrokes to make it seven.
We back Fulham at 1.73 with bet365. Our model gives them a 57% chance of winning, with the draw at 23% and a Hull win at 19%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 1.73 (bet365) | 57% |
| Draw | 4.00 (Ladbrokes) | 23% |
| Hull City win | 4.50 (bet365) | 19% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 (Ladbrokes) | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 (BoyleSports) | 55% |
We predict a 1-1 draw as the likeliest single scoreline, though we make Fulham the more likely winner overall. 1-0 and 2-0 are close behind at 10% each. We expect 1.87 goals from Fulham and one from Hull, with Fulham keeping a clean sheet 37% of the time.
Prediction: Fulham 1-1 Hull City.