Newcastle United host Aston Villa at St. James' Park on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 17:30 UK. Newcastle are 11th with 8 points from 6 games, Villa 16th with 5. The hosts have been in goal-heavy games all season, with both teams scoring in 83% of their matches, the highest rate in the league. Newcastle have scored 10 and conceded 13, Villa 6 and 11.
Newcastle come in on the back of a heavy defeat. Coventry beat them 4-1 on Monday, and it was the second time in five games they had shipped four, after a 4-1 loss at Leeds. Between those came a 2-1 home win over Hull. Their goals-against average of 2.17 per game is the 3rd most in the division, yet they also score freely at 1.67 per game, the 5th most. Newcastle have gone over 2.5 goals in 83% of their games, the 2nd highest rate in the league, and their shots on target output of 4 per game is the 7th fewest.
Villa have had a better week than their league position suggests. They beat Fenerbahçe 6-0 in the Champions League on Wednesday, after a 2-2 home draw with Brentford and a 3-2 win at Spurs. Their league problem is at the other end of the pitch: 1 goal per game is the 6th fewest, and their 3.17 shots on target per game is the fewest in the league. A 1-2 home defeat by Forest is the league loss that stands out from the run.
Both sides average 2.17 cards per game, the 7th most in the division. Jarred Gillett takes the whistle and has averaged 3.75 yellows across his 4 games this season.
Newcastle United possible starting lineup:
Hornicek; Miley, Thiaw, Botman, Hall; Willock, González, Murphy; Barnes, Fernández-Pardo, Wissa
Aston Villa possible starting lineup:
Suzuki; Cash, Lindelöf, Mings, Wan-Bissaka; Kamara, Gomes, McGinn; BuendÃa, Manzambi, Jackson
Joe Willock has had 2+ shots in five straight games, averaging 2.8, and he is 1.62 at bet365 to make it six. He has had five shots in two of those games.
Harvey Barnes has put a shot on target in four straight, 1.50 at bet365 to keep it going, and he has also had 2+ shots in four in a row.
Lewis Hall has made a tackle in all six games, averaging 2.3, and has had a shot in five in a row.
For Villa, John McGinn has had at least one shot in each of his last five games, with four in one of them, and is 1.33 at bet365. Nicolas Jackson has a shot on target in each of his last five, 1.40 at bet365 to extend that, averaging 2 per game.
We back Newcastle United at 2.25 with bet365. Our model gives them a 44% chance of winning, with the draw at 25% and Villa at 31%. Draws are priced at 3.70 with Ladbrokes and Villa at 3.00 with bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United win | 2.25 (bet365) | 44% |
| Draw | 3.70 (Ladbrokes) | 25% |
| Aston Villa win | 3.00 (bet365) | 31% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 (Midnite) | 60% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 (Midnite) | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 (bet365) | 57% |
We expect 1.63 goals from Newcastle and 1.35 from Villa. 1-1 is the likeliest score, though we make Newcastle the more likely winner. Both teams have scored in 83% of Newcastle's games, which fits with our 60% for both teams to score.
A four-leg player builder of Barnes and Jackson each to have a shot on target, McGinn to have a shot and Willock to have 2+ shots comes in at 4.52 combined. All four have hit those lines in each of their last five games.