Updated 30 October 2026.
Olympique Marseille welcome Toulouse to the Stade Vélodrome on Sunday 1 November, kick-off 7:45pm UK, in a Ligue 1 game between the league's top-scoring side and its most foul-prone one. Marseille have scored 2.25 goals a game this season, the most in the league, and Toulouse commit 16 fouls a game, also the most.
Marseille sit 8th in the Ligue 1 table on 12 points from eight games, and Toulouse are 11th on 10. Marseille have won three of their last five in all competitions, losing both of their Europa League games in that run, while Toulouse are unbeaten in their last five league games, with three draws and two wins.
Olympique Marseille have won four and lost four of their eight, with 18 goals scored and 13 conceded. Their latest result was a 4-3 home win over Le Havre on 25 October. Before that came a 1-0 defeat at Sturm Graz in the Europa League, then a 5-2 win at Angers, a 0-1 home loss to Olympiacos in the Europa League and a 2-0 win at Troyes. Their 63% over 2.5 goals rate is the 8th highest in the division, and their 4.88 shots on target a game is the 8th most.
Toulouse have two wins, four draws and two defeats, with 12 scored and 11 conceded. They concede 1.38 goals a game, the 8th fewest, and they have kept a clean sheet in a quarter of their games, the 6th highest rate. Their latest game was a 0-0 draw with Troyes, after a 3-0 win at Le Mans, a 2-2 draw at Monaco and a 3-2 home win over Le Havre.
Toulouse commit 16 fouls a game, the most in the league, and they pick up 2.13 cards a game, the 7th most. Marseille commit 11.25 fouls a game, the 6th fewest.
Olympique Marseille possible starting lineup:
de Lange; Weah, Egan-Riley, Aguerd, Emerson; Nnadi, Højbjerg, Abdelli; Harit, Paixão, Gouiri
Toulouse possible starting lineup:
Restes; Messali, Nicolaisen, McKenzie, Tapé; Cásseres Jr., Jørgensen, Sigur; Dønnum, Russell-Rowe, Tengstedt
Thomas Jørgensen has had at least one shot in all eight of Toulouse's league games, averaging 1.9 a game. He is 1.22 at bet365 to have a shot again.
Cristian Cásseres Jr. has made a tackle in each of Toulouse's eight league games, averaging four a game, and has committed a foul in seven in a row, averaging 2.3.
Casper Tengstedt has put a shot on target in five straight games and is 1.57 at bet365 to make it six. For Marseille, Timothy Weah has had a shot in six consecutive games and is 1.40 at Ladbrokes, and he has also made a tackle in six straight, averaging 3.2 a game.
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg has committed a foul in five straight games for Marseille, averaging 1.8.
Marseille are the favourites at 1.91 with bet365 to win at home. Our model gives them a 46% chance, with the draw at 24% and Toulouse at 30%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille win | 1.91 (bet365) | 46% |
| Draw | 4.00 (bet365) | 24% |
| Toulouse win | 3.60 (bet365) | 30% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 (bet365) | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 (bet365) | 62% |
We expect 1.77 goals from Marseille and 1.41 from Toulouse. 1-1 is the likeliest single score at 10.9%, though we make Marseille the likelier winners at 46%. 2-1 to the hosts is next at 9.2%. Both teams scoring is a 63% chance, with Marseille on 18 league goals from eight games and Toulouse on 12.
Statz prediction: Marseille 1-1 Toulouse.
Olympique Marseille v Toulouse in Ligue 1 2026/27 kicks off at 7:45pm UK on Sunday 1 November 2026 at the Stade Vélodrome, where Marseille sit 8th and Toulouse 11th after eight league games each.
We predict Marseille 1-1 Toulouse in this Ligue 1 2026/27 game on 1 November 2026, the likeliest single score at 10.9%, though we make Marseille the likelier winners at 46%, against 30% for Toulouse and 24% for the draw.
Marseille are the favourites to beat Toulouse in this Ligue 1 2026/27 game on 1 November 2026, with our model giving them a 46% chance of winning, against 30% for Toulouse and 24% for a draw.
We put both teams to score in Marseille v Toulouse, Ligue 1 2026/27, at 63%, with 1.77 goals expected from Marseille and 1.41 from Toulouse. Marseille have scored 18 goals in eight league games, Toulouse 12.
In the Ligue 1 2026/27 table before Marseille v Toulouse on 1 November, Marseille are 8th with 12 points from 8 games and Toulouse are 11th with 10 points from 8, a gap of 2 points.
Thomas Jørgensen is the Toulouse player in the best shooting form for the Ligue 1 2026/27 game at Marseille on 1 November, with at least 1 shot in all 8 of their league games this season, averaging 1.9 a game.
For the 7:45pm UK kick-off on 1 November 2026, Marseille's possible starting lineup is de Lange; Weah, Egan-Riley, Aguerd, Emerson; Nnadi, Højbjerg, Abdelli; Harit, Paixão, Gouiri. Toulouse's possible starting lineup is Restes; Messali, Nicolaisen, McKenzie, Tapé; Cásseres Jr., Jørgensen, Sigur; Dønnum, Russell-Rowe, Tengstedt.