Updated 11 October 2026.
Atalanta welcome Venezia to the Gewiss Stadium on Monday 12 October, kick-off 5:30pm UK, with the hosts 11th and the visitors rooted to the bottom of Serie A without a point. Venezia have lost five from five, conceding 13 in the process, yet John Yeboah and Akor Adams have put a shot on target in every one of those games.
Atalanta sit 11th with 6 points from five, having won two and lost three. The mood has turned, though: they beat Bologna 1-0 on 31 August, then lost three in a row, going down 2-1 at Roma, 2-1 at home to Cagliari and 2-0 at Juventus. They have scored 5 and conceded 7 in the league, and at 1.4 goals against per game they have the 10th most leaky defence in the division.
Their numbers at the other end are modest. They are averaging 3.4 shots on target a game, the 6th fewest, and they win the 2nd fewest corners in the league. Even so, our model gives them 2.3 goals here, because of who they are facing.
Venezia are 20th with 0 points, 4 goals scored and 13 conceded. They have lost to Lazio 2-0, Fiorentina 4-2 and Frosinone 3-2, and went out of the Coppa Italia at Udinese before that. Their goals against figure of 2.6 per game is the worst in the division, and they have not kept a clean sheet. They also lead the league for cards, at 3.2 a game.
Atalanta possible starting lineup:
Carnesecchi; Bellanova, Kristensen, Scalvini, Bernasconi; Éderson, Kessié, Samardžić; Rowe, De Ketelaere, Scamacca
Venezia possible starting lineup:
Stanković; Moreno, Bella-Kotchap, Juan Jesus, Hainaut; Correia, Sohm, Pérez, Helgason; Yeboah, Adams
John Yeboah has had a shot on target in each of Venezia's five league games and averages 1.2 a game. He is 1.53 at bet365 to make it six, and he has had two or more shots in all five as well.
His strike partner Akor Adams is on the same run, a shot on target in five straight, and averages 3.4 shots a game. He is 1.50 at bet365 for a shot on target and 1.30 at Ladbrokes for two or more shots.
Antoine Hainaut is a right-back with a forward's habit: a shot in five straight games, at 1.70 with Ladbrokes. He has also committed two or more fouls in four in a row, at 2.50.
For Atalanta, Lazar Samardžić has had a shot in all five games and averages two a game, while Franck Kessié has made at least one tackle in each of his last five, and is 1.25 at bet365 to do it again.
We back Atalanta to win, and they are 1.57 at bet365. The model makes them 65% likely to win, with the draw at 20% and a Venezia win at 15%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta win | 1.57 (bet365) | 65% |
| Draw | 4.20 (Ladbrokes) | 20% |
| Venezia win | 5.75 (bet365) | 15% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 (bet365) | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 (bet365) | 65% |
We predict Atalanta 2-1. We expect 2.3 goals from the hosts and just over one from Venezia, with both teams scoring at 59%. Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 35% of our simulations, and 2-0 is only marginally behind our 2-1 pick. A draw is in play, with 1-1 within a fraction of a point of the top two scorelines.
The interest is on the player markets, where Yeboah and Adams bring five-game shooting runs against a defence that concedes more than anyone in the league.
Kick-off is at 5:30pm UK on Monday 12 October 2026 at the Gewiss Stadium.
We predict Atalanta 2-1 Venezia. A draw is in play, with 1-1 close behind the top scorelines.
Atalanta are favourites at 1.57 with bet365, and our model gives them a 65% chance of winning, against 20% for the draw and 15% for Venezia.
Our model puts both teams to score at 59%, with bet365 offering 1.62. Venezia have scored in four of their five league games, while Atalanta have conceded seven in five.
John Yeboah and Akor Adams have each had a shot on target in five straight games, and Antoine Hainaut has had a shot in five in a row.
Atalanta are 11th with 6 points from five games. Venezia are 20th with 0 points and have lost all five.
Atalanta: Carnesecchi; Bellanova, Kristensen, Scalvini, Bernasconi; Éderson, Kessié, Samardžić; Rowe, De Ketelaere, Scamacca. Venezia: Stanković; Moreno, Bella-Kotchap, Juan Jesus, Hainaut; Correia, Sohm, Pérez, Helgason; Yeboah, Adams.