Genoa host Fiorentina at the Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 2pm UK, and neither side can afford to lose it. Genoa sit 19th in the Serie A table with a single point from five games. Fiorentina are 17th on 4 points, and they have conceded 12 goals, only two fewer than the division's worst.
Two sides in the relegation places and a gap of three points make this one of the early-season fixtures with real consequences. Genoa have scored three times all season. Fiorentina have shown they can score, but they have been giving goals away.
Genoa have yet to win a league game. Their only point came in a 1-1 draw with Frosinone, and they have lost the other four, most recently 2-1 at Parma on 20 September. Before that came a 1-4 home defeat to Como and a 1-0 loss at Lazio. The one win in their last five was a 1-0 Coppa Italia result against Südtirol. At 0.6 goals a game, only the 2nd fewest in the division, goals are the problem, and they register the 3rd fewest shots on target.
Fiorentina's recent record is mixed. They lost 0-3 to Frosinone and 1-2 to Torino at home, then won 4-2 at Venezia and beat Pisa 3-0 in the cup. They finished that run with a 1-1 home draw with Napoli. They average 5.6 shots on target a game, the 7th most in the league, and 80% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals, the 2nd highest rate in Serie A.
Both sides have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, the 7th highest rate in the division. Genoa have also collected the 2nd most cards in Serie A at 2.6 a game, a number to bear in mind with referee Fabio Maresca in charge.
Genoa possible starting lineup:
Bijlow; Ehizibue, Marcandalli, Vásquez, Alexsandro; Frendrup, Ellertsson, Baldanzi; Vitinha, Osmajic
Fiorentina possible starting lineup:
de Gea; Jiménez, Viery, Ranieri, Drăgușin; Atta, Ndour, Fagioli; Mastantuono, Pellegrino, Njie
Mikael Egill Ellertsson is the standout name in the Genoa midfield. He has made at least two tackles in each of the last five games and averages 2.8 a game, the best run in the division, and he is 1.53 at bet365 to make 2+ tackles again. He has also committed a foul in all five, and 1.57 at bet365 is the price on that.
Vitinha has had a shot in each of Genoa's five league games, averaging 1.6 a game, and he leads the line again. For a side that struggles to create, he is the most reliable source of attempts.
Radu Drăgușin has fouled in five straight for Fiorentina at 1.4 a game, and 1.53 at bet365 is the price for a sixth.
Nicolò Fagioli has had a shot in four consecutive games, 1.4 at bet365. Our model also rates him highly for 2+ fouls, which is 2.75.
Cher Ndour has won at least one tackle in each of the last five and averages 1.2 a game, so he is a steady contributor in the Fiorentina midfield.
We back Fiorentina narrowly, at 2.3 with Coral, with the draw close behind. Genoa are 3.3 at bet365 and the draw is 3.3 at Ladbrokes.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa to win | 3.30 (bet365) | 30% |
| Draw | 3.30 (Ladbrokes) | 30% |
| Fiorentina to win | 2.30 (Coral) | 40% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 (bet365) | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 (bet365) | 42% |
Our model has Genoa scoring 1.08 goals and Fiorentina 1.29. We predict a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single scoreline at 14%, though we make Fiorentina slightly more likely to win the match. A draw is clearly in play. Our model gives the visitors a 34% chance of a clean sheet and Genoa 28%.
With the result so tight, the player markets offer the sharper angles. Ellertsson's tackle and foul runs are among the strongest on the card, and Drăgușin is on the same fouls run. For goals, Fiorentina have the stronger attacking record, but both teams have scored in 60% of their games so far.