Updated 9 October 2026.
Inter host Parma at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 5pm UK, and the gap between the sides is as wide as the table suggests. Inter are 2nd with 13 points from five games, and have scored more goals per game than anyone in Serie A. Parma are 15th with four points and a side that has struggled to create shots on target. Our model gives Inter an 81% chance of winning.
Inter have won four and drawn one of their five league games, scoring 15 and conceding 8. Their last league outing was a 2-2 draw at Roma on 19 September, after a 5-3 home win over Udinese and a 3-2 win over Napoli. Between those came a 2-1 Champions League defeat at Real Madrid, the only loss in their last five. They opened the league run with a 1-0 win at Cagliari.
The numbers behind that are eye-catching. Inter average 3 goals a game, the most in the division, and 7.4 shots on target, also the most. Both teams have scored in 80% of their games, the 3rd highest rate, and 80% have gone over 2.5 goals. They also commit the fewest fouls in the league at 6.6 a game, and their foul record sits at the bottom of the table.
Parma have won one, drawn one and lost three, scoring four and conceding seven. They beat Genoa 2-1 at home on 20 September, having lost 2-1 at Como and drawn 1-1 with Monza. Before that came a 2-0 Coppa Italia loss to Cremonese and a 2-0 defeat at Juventus.
Parma average 0.8 goals a game, the 4th fewest, and 2.8 shots on target, the fewest in Serie A. They have not kept a clean sheet yet.
Inter possible starting lineup:
Josep MartÃnez; Akanji, Bisseck, Bastoni; ZieliÅ„ski, Barella, ÇalhanoÄŸlu, Dimarco, Diouf; Thuram, Lautaro MartÃnez
Parma possible starting lineup:
Corvi; Delprato, Troilo, Diego Carlos, Britschgi; Keita, Bernabé, Sierro, Valeri; Touré, Romero
Marcus Thuram has had three or more shots in each of his last four games, averaging 3.8, and he is 1.22 at bet365 to do it again. He has also put a shot on target in three straight, at 1.18.
Lautaro MartÃnez has had three or more shots in three straight games, averaging 7.3 across them, and is 1.14 at bet365 to repeat it. He has made at least one tackle in each of his last five, which Inter's bet builder prices at 1.44.
Manuel Akanji has had a shot in five straight games and made a tackle in each of his last four. The shot is 1.57 at bet365, and the model rates the defender's two-shot line at 3.50 as a better chance than that price suggests.
Piotr Zieliński has taken a shot in all five games this season, averaging two a game.
For Parma, El Bilal Touré has had a shot in three straight games and is 1.33 at bet365 to make it four.
We back Inter to win at 1.15 with Ladbrokes. The model makes them 81% likely to take the three points, with the draw at 13% and a Parma win at 5%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Inter win | 1.15 (Ladbrokes) | 81% |
| Draw | 8.50 (Coral) | 13% |
| Parma win | 15.00 (Ladbrokes) | 5% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 (bet365) | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 (bet365) | 64% |
We project Inter at 2.69 goals and Parma at 0.59, and we predict a 2-0 home win. 3-0 is next likeliest and 1-0 follows. Inter keep a clean sheet in 55% of our simulations, and the model projects 8.4 shots on target for them against 2.7 for Parma.
The interest is in the player markets, where Thuram, Lautaro MartÃnez and Akanji all arrive on shot runs. Parma, by contrast, have yet to keep a clean sheet and have scored more than one goal only once in five league games, against Genoa.
Inter host Parma on Saturday 10 October 2026 at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, with kick-off at 5pm UK time.
We predict a 2-0 win for Inter. The model gives Inter an 81% chance of winning, with the draw at 13% and Parma at 5%.
Inter are strong favourites, with a best price of 1.15 at Ladbrokes. Parma are 15.00 and the draw is 8.50.
We make it 42% likely that both sides score, and bet365 offer 2.10. Parma have scored only four goals in five league games.
We put over 2.5 goals at 64%, and bet365 price it at 1.36. Inter have gone over 2.5 in 80% of their games this season.
Marcus Thuram has had three or more shots in four straight games, Lautaro MartÃnez in three straight, and Akanji and ZieliÅ„ski have each had a shot in all five games.
Inter are 2nd with 13 points from five games. Parma are 15th with four points from five.
Josep MartÃnez; Akanji, Bisseck, Bastoni; ZieliÅ„ski, Barella, ÇalhanoÄŸlu, Dimarco, Diouf; Thuram, Lautaro MartÃnez.