Napoli host Frosinone at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona on Saturday 10 October, with kick-off at 7:45pm UK. The home side sit 9th in the Serie A table on 7 points, three behind a Frosinone team in 6th who have won three of their opening five. A visitor higher up the table than the hosts is the story here, and it comes with a side that has scored 9 and conceded just 4.
The model still leans firmly towards Napoli. We give them a 64% chance of the win, with Frosinone at 15%, and the interest for the shooting and fouls markets lies mostly with the visitors.
Napoli have had a stop-start opening. They have won two, drawn one and lost two, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Their last five, newest first: a 1-1 draw at Fiorentina, a 1-0 win over Bologna, a Champions League defeat to Arsenal, a 3-2 loss at Inter and a 2-1 home defeat by Como. Here is the 1-1 at Fiorentina and the 1-0 against Bologna in full. Only the 1-0 loss to Arsenal came in Europe.
At the back they are decent: they concede 1.2 a game, the 7th fewest in the division, and have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games, the 5th highest rate. Up front they score 1.4 a game, which puts them 11th. Their foul count is low at 9.2 a game, the 5th fewest, and they pick up few cards, the 3rd fewest.
Frosinone have been the more convincing side. They won 3-0 at Fiorentina on the opening weekend, drew 1-1 at Sassuolo in the Coppa Italia, beat Venezia 3-2, drew 1-1 at Genoa and then beat Como 2-0 last time out. Their last ten reads W, W, W, W, L, W, D, W, D, W from oldest to newest, so they are unbeaten in their last six.
They score 1.8 a game, the 4th most, and concede 0.8, the 4th fewest. They also commit 17 fouls a game, the most in the league, and collect 2.4 cards a game, the 3rd most. Frosinone's foul numbers set up a physical evening, and referee Ermanno Feliciani has averaged 4 yellows and 24 fouls in his one game this season.
Napoli possible starting lineup:
Meret; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Rafa MarÃn, Spinazzola; Lobotka, Gilmour, De Bruyne; Politano, Højlund, Neres
Frosinone possible starting lineup:
Palmisani; Oyono, Monterisi, Bracaglia, Calvani; Masini, Calò, Schmid; Ghedjemis, Kvernadze, Bobcek
Giorgi Kvernadze has had two or more shots in each of Frosinone's five league and cup games, averaging 2.8 a game, and is 1.62 at bet365 to keep it going.
Anthony Oyono has had a shot in four straight games and is 1.83 at bet365 for another. Fellow Frosinone attacker Farès Ghedjemis has had two or more shots in each of his last five, with 3, 2, 2, 2 and 4, and is 1.40 at bet365 to do it again.
For Napoli, Giovanni Di Lorenzo has made a tackle in all five games this season, at 2.8 a game, and has committed a foul in each of the last five. Rafa MarÃn has made two or more tackles in four straight and is 2.25 at bet365 to make it five. In midfield, Frosinone's Romano Schmid has committed at least one foul in each of his last five, at 2 a game, and is 1.22 at bet365.
We back Napoli to win, and bet365 have them at 1.44. Our model makes them 64% to win at home, which fits the price, so the interest lies in the player markets above. We project Napoli for 2.15 goals and 6.4 shots on target, against 0.96 goals and 4.2 on target for Frosinone.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Napoli to win | 1.44 | 64% |
| Draw | 4.75 | 21% |
| Frosinone to win | 7.00 | 15% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 55% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 82% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 60% |
We predict a 2-0 Napoli win, the likeliest single score at 10%. Napoli keep a clean sheet 38% of the time in our simulations, and 1-1 and 2-1 are each only a fraction behind at 9.9%, so a draw is in play. Over 2.5 goals is 60% in our numbers, with Napoli's 2.15 projected goals doing the work.
A fouls-heavy night looks likely given Frosinone's record, and Napoli's own projection is 11.4 fouls against 14.9 for the visitors.