Bologna host Inter at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 5pm UK, and the table makes the contrast plain: Inter arrive top of Serie A with 16 points from six games, while Bologna are 14th on 5. Inter have scored 18 times in those six league matches, the most of anyone, and they have just come off a 3-4 home defeat to Club Brugge in the Champions League. Bologna have a lot to prove against that attack.
Bologna have won one of their six league games, drawn two and lost three, with 5 goals scored and 7 conceded. They did pick up a win last time out, going to Lecce and taking it 2-1 on 11 October. Before that came a 1-1 draw with Torino, a 1-0 defeat at Napoli and a 2-2 draw with Sassuolo.
The attack is the concern. Bologna score 0.83 goals a game, the 4th fewest in the division, and manage 3.5 shots on target a game, also the 4th fewest. At the back they are sturdier, conceding 1.17 a game, the 8th fewest. They are also one of the most foul-prone sides in the league, committing 13.5 a game, the 2nd most.
Inter sit 1st in the Serie A table with five wins, a draw and no defeats. They average 3 goals a game, the most in the league, and 7.17 shots on target a game, also the most. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of their league games, the highest rate in Serie A. The last week has been busier: a 3-0 win over Parma on 10 October, then Tuesday's 3-4 loss to Club Brugge. Before that they drew 2-2 at Roma and beat Udinese 5-3. Inter keep fouls down more than anyone, at 7.67 a game, the fewest in the league.
Bologna possible starting lineup:
Pessina; Zortea, Heggem, Casale, Miranda; Pobega, Ferguson, Darmian; Bernardeschi, Cambiaghi; Piccoli
Inter possible starting lineup:
Martínez; Pavard, Bisseck, Carlos Augusto; Sučić, Çalhanoğlu, Mkhitaryan, Diouf, Dimarco; Thuram, Esposito
Lewis Ferguson has made two or more tackles in six straight games, averaging 2.7, and that is the longest such run in Serie A. He has also committed a foul in each of those six, averaging 2.3. The tackles run is 2.00 at bet365, the fouls 1.20.
Tommaso Pobega has had a shot in five straight games, averaging 1.4, and is 1.33 at Ladbrokes to make it six.
Marcus Thuram has had two or more shots in five straight games, averaging 3.4, and a shot on target in four in a row. A shot on target is 1.40 at bet365. Alongside him, Lautaro Martínez has had three or more shots in four straight, averaging 6.3 a game, at 1.36 at bet365.
From the Inter back line, Manuel Akanji has had a shot in five consecutive games and is 1.83 at bet365.
We back Inter, who are 1.60 at Ladbrokes to win. Our model gives them a 59% chance, with Bologna at 17% and the draw at 24%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna win | 5.50 (bet365) | 17% |
| Draw | 4.20 (bet365) | 24% |
| Inter win | 1.60 (Ladbrokes) | 59% |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 (bet365) | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 (bet365) | 53% |
We expect Inter to score 1.87 goals and Bologna 0.91. Our prediction is a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single scoreline at 11%, though we make Inter much more likely to win the game, and 0-2 and 0-1 are right behind it at 11% each. Inter keep a clean sheet in 40% of our simulations.
Fouls are where Bologna's numbers stand out: they commit 13.5 a game, and Ferguson's run of six straight games with a foul is the kind of record that supports a player prop. Referee Daniele Doveri has taken charge of two games this season, averaging 2.5 yellow cards.