Parma and Torino meet at the Stadio Ennio Tardini on Monday 19 October, kick-off 19:45 UK, in a Serie A game between two sides who have both struggled to score. Parma are 17th with 4 points from 6 games, while Torino sit 12th on 7 points, and neither side has managed more than seven league goals so far.
Parma have scored just 4 in six and have the fewest goals per game in the division at 0.67. Torino have started to turn their results around with back-to-back league games unbeaten.
Parma have won once in the league, 2-1 against Genoa on 20 September, and have lost four of six. Their league position of 17th reflects that, and the latest result was a 3-0 loss at Inter. Before that came the win over Genoa, a 2-1 loss at Como and a 1-1 draw with Monza, and they went out of the Coppa Italia 2-0 to Cremonese on 1 September. The goals have dried up because the chances have: they average 2.67 shots on target a game, the fewest in Serie A, and they also have the fewest corners at 3 a game.
Torino are 12th with 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats. They beat Udinese 2-1 at home on 12 October, after a 1-1 draw at Bologna on 19 September. Before that came a 0-2 home defeat to Roma and a 2-1 win at Fiorentina.
Torino's games have tended to have goals at both ends. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches, the 3rd highest rate in the league, and 67% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals, the 5th highest. They do not shoot much, though: their 3.17 shots on target a game is the 3rd fewest, and they commit the 3rd fewest fouls at 8.33 a game.
Parma possible starting lineup:
Corvi; Delprato, Troilo, Diego Carlos, Valeri; Keita, Sierro, Bernabé; Britschgi, Touré; Romero
Torino possible starting lineup:
Perri; Coco, Comuzzo, RodrÃguez; Belghali, Mandragora, Bragança, Cacciamani; VlaÅ¡ić; Adams, Simeone
Pietro Comuzzo is the pick of the Torino runs. He has made 2+ tackles in four straight games and averages 3.5 a game, 5th in the division for his run, and he is 1.73 at bet365 for 2+ tackles.
Giovanni Simeone has had 2+ shots in three straight games, averaging 3 a game, and is 1.25 at bet365 to repeat it. Alongside him, Ché Adams has had a shot in four in a row.
For Parma, El Bilal Touré has had at least one shot in each of his last four, and David Romero has done so in three straight, averaging 2.3 a game.
Mandela Keita has made a tackle in five consecutive games, as has Torino's Rolando Mandragora, who averages 1.6 a game.
We back Torino, who are 2.37 at Ladbrokes to win, with the draw at 3.10 and Parma at 3.40, both at bet365. Our model gives Torino a 39% chance, the draw 32% and Parma 29%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Parma win | 3.40 (bet365) | 29% |
| Draw | 3.10 (bet365) | 32% |
| Torino win | 2.37 (Ladbrokes) | 39% |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 (bet365) | 43% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.44 (bet365) | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.38 (bet365) | 35% |
We predict a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single score at 14%, though we make Torino slightly more likely to win the match. A draw is clearly in play, and 0-0 is not far behind at 13%, with 0-1 at 13%. We project 0.95 goals for Parma and 1.14 for Torino.
The player markets are where the interest lies. Mandragora is 1.53 at bet365 for 2+ shots, and he has hit that in four of his last five. Vlašić at 1.22 for a shot has done so in four of five.