Roma host Genoa at the Stadio Olimpico on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 19:45 UK, with the home side unbeaten in Serie A and 3rd in the table on 14 points from six games. Genoa sit 17th with 4 points, and the gap between a side that has conceded three league goals all season and one that has shipped eleven is the story of this fixture.
Roma's last outing was a 3-4 home defeat to Real Madrid in the Champions League on Wednesday, so the league record is intact but the week has been a draining one. Genoa arrive with a 2-1 win over Fiorentina on their most recent outing.
Roma have won four and drawn two of their six league games, scoring 14 and conceding 3. Per game that is 2.33 goals scored, the 2nd most in the division, and 0.5 conceded, the fewest. They have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their league games, the highest rate in Serie A.
The recent run is less tidy. They drew 0-0 at Como on Sunday, and before that came a 2-2 draw with Inter at home and a 2-0 win at Torino. Add the Champions League defeat to Real Madrid and Roma have not won in their last three matches across competitions. They average 6.17 shots on target a game, the 5th most in Serie A.
Genoa have won one, drawn one and lost four, scoring 5 and conceding 11. They average 0.83 goals a game, the 4th fewest, and 3.17 shots on target, the 3rd fewest. At the other end they concede 1.83 a game, the 6th most, and have not kept a clean sheet in the league.
Their form is mixed. The 2-1 win over Fiorentina followed a 2-1 defeat at Parma, a 1-0 Coppa Italia win over Südtirol, a 1-1 draw with Frosinone and a 4-1 home loss to Como. Genoa also lead the division for cards at 3 a game.
Roma possible starting lineup:
Gollini; Molina, Mancini, Ndicka, Hermoso; De Roon, Koné, Wesley; Pellegrini, Dybala, Castro
Genoa possible starting lineup:
Bijlow; Ehizibue, Østigård, Vásquez, Drameh; Frendrup, Ellertsson; Messias, Traoré, El Shaarawy; Osmajic
Paulo Dybala has had a shot in all six of Roma's league games, averaging 3.5 a game. He is 1.01 at bet365 for a shot.
Mario Hermoso has made at least one tackle in six straight games, averaging 2.3, and is 1.11 for another.
For Genoa, Mikael Egill Ellertsson has made two or more tackles in six straight games at 2.7 a game, and is 1.53 to do it again. He has also committed a foul in each of those six, and 1+ fouls is 1.50. A 2+ fouls price of 3.25 is on offer as well.
Leo Østigård has committed a foul and made a tackle in each of Genoa's six league games. Junior Messias has had a shot in five straight games, averaging 2.4, and is 1.30 for another.
We back Roma to win at 1.44 with bet365, and our model gives them a 65% chance. They are expected to carry most of the attacking threat, with a projected 1.93 goals to Genoa's 0.74 and 18.67 total shots to 8.50.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Roma win | 1.44 (bet365) | 65% |
| Draw | 4.75 (bet365) | 22% |
| Genoa win | 7.00 (bet365) | 13% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 (bet365) | 45% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 (bet365) | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 (bet365) | 50% |
We predict a 2-0 Roma win, with 1-0 a close second at 13% and 1-1 at 11%, so a draw is in play. Roma have kept a clean sheet in 48% of the model's runs, while Genoa have kept one in 15%.
The best angles are on the player markets. A Dybala shot and Genoa's tackling and fouling runs from Ellertsson and Østigård all come from consistent recent form.