Updated 23 October 2026.
Napoli host Roma at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona on Saturday 24 October, with kick-off at 5pm UK. Roma arrive 3rd and unbeaten in the league, while Napoli sit 9th after a week that took in a Champions League win and a league defeat.
Roma have 17 points from seven games against Napoli's 10, and they have conceded three league goals. Napoli have scored 10 and have Kevin De Bruyne in their possible starting lineup.
Roma are 3rd in Serie A with five wins and two draws from seven, 16 goals scored and only 3 conceded. Per game that is 2.29 scored, the 2nd most in the division, and 0.43 conceded, the fewest. They have kept a clean sheet in 71% of their league games, the highest rate in Serie A, and they average 6 shots on target a game, the 4th most.
They beat Slovan 4-0 in the Champions League on Tuesday, three days after a 2-0 win over Genoa in the league. Before that they lost a seven-goal 3-4 game with Real Madrid in the Champions League and drew 0-0 at Como. Their only dropped points in the league are that draw at Como and the 2-2 draw with Inter in September.
Napoli are 9th on 10 points from seven, with three wins, a draw and three defeats. Their 1.00 goals against per game is the 3rd fewest in Serie A, and they have kept a clean sheet in 43% of games, also 3rd highest. They also average 6.43 corners, the 3rd most.
Napoli won a Champions League game against Bodø / Glimt 4-3 on Tuesday, but lost 1-0 at Venezia in the league on the Saturday before, and 3-1 at Villarreal in the Champions League the Tuesday before that. Before those they won 3-0 against Frosinone on 10 October.
Napoli average 8.57 fouls and 0.86 cards a game, the 3rd and 2nd fewest in the league. Roma average 12 fouls and 2 cards per game, the 7th and 3rd most. We project 1.92 yellow cards for Roma in this game and 1.55 for Napoli.
Napoli possible starting lineup:
Meret; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Badiashile, Spinazzola; Lobotka, McTominay, De Bruyne; Politano, Lang, Højlund
Roma possible starting lineup:
Gollini; Molina, Mancini, Ndicka, Hermoso; De Roon, Pisilli, Wesley; Soulé, Mora, Castro
Rasmus Højlund has had at least one shot in six straight games, averaging 2 a game, and is 1.05 at bet365 to make it seven. His teammate Noa Lang has had a shot in four in a row, averaging 2.3, and is 1.11 at bet365 to make it five. He has also made a tackle in five straight.
On the Roma side, Santiago Castro has had a shot in five straight games, averaging 2.2, and is 1.06 at bet365 to make it six.
Kevin De Bruyne has committed a foul in four of his last five and averages 1.8 across them. He is 1.33 at bet365 to commit one. Niccolò Pisilli has had a shot in each of his last five and is 1.30 at bet365 to have one again.
We make Roma a shade ahead, giving them a 38% chance of winning against 33% for Napoli and 29% for the draw. Roma are 2.60 at bet365 to win, Napoli 2.88, and the draw is 3.40 at Ladbrokes.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Napoli win | 2.88 (bet365) | 33% |
| Draw | 3.40 (Ladbrokes) | 29% |
| Roma win | 2.60 (bet365) | 38% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 (bet365) | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 (Midnite) | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 (bet365) | 44% |
We predict a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single score at 14%, though we make Roma slightly more likely to win the game outright. Napoli are projected 1.16 goals and Roma 1.26. We give both teams to score a 50% chance and over 2.5 goals a 44% chance. Roma have the fewest goals against in Serie A and Napoli the 3rd fewest.
For a player-market builder we would look at Pisilli to have a shot, Wesley to commit a foul, Di Lorenzo to have a shot and De Bruyne to commit a foul. Pisilli and Wesley have each hit in all of their last five games, while Di Lorenzo and De Bruyne have hit in four of five.
Kick-off is at 5pm UK on Saturday 24 October 2026 at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
We predict a 1-1 draw. It is the likeliest single score at 14%, though we make Roma slightly more likely to win the game, at 38% against 33% for Napoli.
Roma are favourites with the bookmakers at 2.60 at bet365, with Napoli at 2.88 and the draw at 3.40 with Ladbrokes. Our model also leans to Roma.
We give both teams to score a 50% chance, with 1.67 available at bet365. Roma have kept a clean sheet in 71% of their league games.
Rasmus Højlund has had a shot in six straight games for Napoli. Santiago Castro has had a shot in five straight games for Roma.
Roma are 3rd with 17 points from seven games. Napoli are 9th with 10 points from seven.
Napoli: Meret; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Badiashile, Spinazzola; Lobotka, McTominay, De Bruyne; Politano, Lang, Højlund. Roma: Gollini; Molina, Mancini, Ndicka, Hermoso; De Roon, Pisilli, Wesley; Soulé, Mora, Castro.