Ukraine host Northern Ireland at 19:45 UK on Friday 2 October, at the Štadión Antona Malatinského in Slovakia, because Ukraine continue to play their home fixtures abroad.
The two sides have faced the same two opponents in this window and returned the same two results. Northern Ireland drew 0-0 with Hungary and won 1-0 in Georgia. Ukraine drew 0-0 in Georgia and won 1-0 in Hungary.
Neither side has conceded a goal in this competition. Both rank first of 54 teams for goals conceded and first for clean sheet percentage, and neither has played in a match with goals at both ends. Both have scored half a goal a game. On the defensive numbers there is nothing between them at all.
The separation is further back. Ukraine beat Poland 2-0 and Albania 1-0 in friendlies before the window and lost 2-1 in Denmark. Northern Ireland drew 1-1 with Wales, beat Guinea 1-0 and lost 3-1 in France. Ukraine create more: 11.6 projected shots a game against 9.9, and 2.5 shots on target a game in this window against Northern Ireland's four. Team sheets are not confirmed.
The model projects 1.26 goals for Ukraine and 0.89 for Northern Ireland, a combined 2.15, which is the lowest total on Friday's Nations League card.
It rates Northern Ireland at 26.3 per cent to win against a margin-free implied 22.2, a gap of four points and the largest on any match-market selection on this card. Ukraine to win goes the other way, 44.9 against an implied 47.8. Under 2.5 goals is projected at 63.4 against an implied 65.2, and over 1.5 at 63.5 against 60.9.
The venue is part of why. Ukraine's home advantage here is a nominal one: the fixture is in Trnava, and the price carries a home edge the ground does not.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee is Jasper Vergoote, who has no completed matches in our database this season, so there is no card or foul average to read from. Treat the referee angle here as unpriced rather than favourable.
The teams supply it instead. Ukraine lead all 54 teams in this competition for cards at 5.5 a game and are fifth for fouls at 16.5. Northern Ireland are fourth for cards at 3.5 and tenth for fouls at 14.5. Two low-scoring, high-foul sides is the clearest signal on the page.
In the player markets, Volodymyr Brazhko has had a shot in all five of his last five, fourteen in total at 2.8 a game, priced 1.20. Isaac Price has hit the target in four of his last five at 1.73 and Ethan Galbraith has had a shot in four of his last five at 1.53. Oleksandr Zubkov has made a tackle in four of his last five at 1.20.
Northern Ireland are also a leg in today's Daily Acca.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Two sides that have conceded nothing, scored once each and committed a great many fouls are not the ingredients of an open game, and the model's 2.15 goals says so.
The read is a tight match in which the away price looks the more generous of the two, helped by a home advantage that exists on the coupon rather than on the ground. The cards and fouls markets are where this fixture is most legible.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes model projections, not advice.