Bosnia and Herzegovina host Poland at 19:45 UK on Monday 5 October at the Stadion Bilino Polje in Zenica, ten days after the two drew 0-0 in Poland.
A lot has happened since. Poland were beaten 3-1 in Sweden and then beat Romania 6-0 on Friday. Bosnia have not lost at all. The model splits the goals markets almost exactly down the middle.
Bosnia drew 1-1 with Sweden on Friday, won 4-2 in Romania before it and opened with the goalless draw in Poland. Three matches unbeaten against the three sides they share this group with, and the only one they have not scored in was away at Monday's opponents. They are thirty-eighth of 54 for shots on target at 3.33 a game, so the goals have come from fewer chances than the scorelines suggest.
Poland's three matches have produced a 0-0, a 1-3 and a 6-0. That is sixth of 54 for scoring at 2.33 a game and sixth for shots on target at 6.67, with two clean sheets from three. The question the model keeps asking is which of those three performances is the real one. Team sheets are not confirmed.
The model projects 1.39 goals for Poland and 1.28 for Bosnia, a combined 2.67, and the closest thing to a coin flip on the weekend's card.
Over 2.5 goals is projected at 49.9 per cent against a margin-free implied 50, and under at 50.1 against 50. The two sides of that market are matched to a tenth of a point, which almost never happens. Both teams to score is 54.2 against 53.6.
In the result market Poland are 39.7 against an implied 40.8 and Bosnia at 2.90 are 34.4 against 32.4, a two-point edge to the home side. That is the only disagreement worth the name, and it is a small one.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee for this fixture has not been published in our data yet, so there is no card or foul average to read from.
Bosnia are projected for 13.85 fouls, the higher of the two counts here, and the player lines follow. Sead Kolašinac has committed a foul in four of his last five and in three straight, priced 1.25, and Amar Memić has fouled in four of five at 1.40.
Armin Gigović has had a shot in four of his last five at 1.57. Kerim Alajbegović has hit the target in three straight at 2.10 and had two or more shots in three straight at 1.83, which is the longest attacking run in the home side.
For Poland, Piotr Zieliński has hit the target in three straight at 1.83 and Matty Cash has committed a foul in three straight.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Poland have the better recent scoreline and Bosnia the better run of results, and the model cannot separate them on goals at all. The home price is the only one carrying any margin, and two points is not much of one.
The read is a close game between two sides who drew 0-0 ten days ago, with the fouls markets better defined than anything on the scoreline. Poland's 6-0 is the outlier on this page rather than the form guide.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes model projections, not advice.