Romania host Sweden at 19:45 UK on Monday 5 October at the Arena Naţională in Bucharest, three days after being beaten 6-0 in Poland.
Romania have conceded four goals a game in this competition, fifty-second of 54 teams, and every one of their matches has gone over 2.5 goals. The model has them at 4.33 with four and a half points in hand, which is the second-widest gap on Monday's card.
Romania have lost all three: 2-1 in Sweden, 2-4 at home to Bosnia and 0-6 in Poland on Friday. Twelve conceded in three. They are forty-third of 54 for shots on target at 2.67 a game and fiftieth for corners at 1.67, so the attacking numbers are as thin as the defensive ones are bad. Tenth for fouls at 14.33 and seventh for cards.
Sweden drew 1-1 in Bosnia on Friday, having beaten Poland 3-1 and Romania 2-1 at home. Every one of their matches has seen goals at both ends, which is first of 54 on that rate. They are also the cleanest side in the competition by some way: fifty-first for fouls at 8.33 a game and fifty-second of 54 for cards at a third of a card a game. Team sheets are not confirmed.
The model projects 1.70 goals for Sweden and 1.17 for Romania, a combined 2.87, and does not share the market's confidence in the visitors.
Sweden to win is rated 49.6 per cent against a margin-free implied 54.3. Romania at 4.33 are 26.4 against 21.7, a gap of four and a half points. The home side has lost three out of three and the model still prefers them to the price.
On the totals, over 2.5 goals is 54.6 against an implied 56.3 and both teams to score is 56.4 against 55.7. Both are within two points, which is unusual for a fixture where one side has been in three straight matches past two and a half goals and the other in three straight with scoring at both ends.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee for this fixture has not been published in our data yet, so there is no card or foul average to read from.
Viktor Gyökeres has scored in three straight and hit the target in four of his last five, priced 1.22. Yasin Ayari has had a shot in all five of his last five, eleven in total at 2.2 a game, at 1.20.
Romania's volume is concentrated too. Răzvan Marin has had a shot in all five of his last five, ten at two a game, priced 1.33, and Dennis Man has committed a foul in all five of his at 1.30.
The cards markets point one way only. Romania are seventh of 54 for cards at three a game; Sweden are fifty-second at 0.33. That is close to the widest disciplinary gap on the weekend's card.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Sweden are the better side and have beaten Romania once already in this window. The model's reading is that 1.73 asks for more than three matches can support, and that a home side this poor is still worth more than 21.7 per cent at the Arena Naţională.
The read is a Sweden win in a match that both sides' records say should have goals in it, with the cards markets lopsided enough to be the clearest thing on the page.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes model projections, not advice.