Portugal host Norway at 19:45 UK on Sunday 4 October at the Estádio do Dragão, eight days after beating them 2-1 in Oslo.
Portugal have won all three of their matches in this window. Norway have been involved in a goals-at-both-ends, over-2.5 match in every one of theirs, which is first of all 54 teams on both counts.
Portugal won 4-2 in Denmark on Thursday, 2-1 in Norway the week before and 1-0 against Wales to open the window. Nine points from nine, 2.33 goals a game which is eighth of 54, and 6.33 corners a game which is fifth. They are not airtight at the back, with a clean sheet in only one of three.
Norway have had the most entertaining three matches in the competition and two points to show for them. They beat Denmark 3-2, lost 2-1 at home to Portugal and were beaten 2-1 at Wales on Thursday. Every match has produced goals at both ends and more than two and a half of them. They concede two a game, forty-fourth of 54, and have no clean sheets. Team sheets are not confirmed.
The model projects 2.10 goals for Portugal and 1.18 for Norway, a combined 3.28, and then agrees with the market about nearly all of it.
Portugal to win is rated 58.3 per cent against a margin-free implied 58.5. Over 2.5 goals is 63.7 against 63.7. Both teams to score is 60.9 against 60.9. Two of the four main markets are matched to the first decimal place, which is as closely as this sheet ever lands.
The only gap is Norway at 5.00, rated 20.9 per cent against an implied 19, and two points is not much of one. Norway's perfect record for open games is doing real work in the goals prices here, and it is worth remembering it is three matches. Across the competition as a whole, both teams score in 46.6 per cent of Nations League games against 52.2 per cent in the English leagues.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee for this fixture has not been published in our data yet, so there is no card or foul average to read from.
The player markets carry the interest instead, and they are unusually busy. Erling Haaland has had a shot on target in three straight at 1.13 and two or more shots in three straight at 1.10. João Félix has scored in three straight and hit the target in all five of his last five, priced 1.25. Gonçalo Ramos has hit the target in three straight at 1.20 and Martin Ødegaard has had two or more shots in three straight at 1.73.
Further down the card, Andreas Schjelderup has had a shot in all five of his last five, twelve in total at 2.4 a game, priced 1.33, and Antonio Nusa has made a tackle in four of five at 1.50.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Portugal have won every match in this window including the away leg of this one, and the price reflects it without overdoing it. There is no meaningful disagreement between the model and the market in any of the four main markets, which is a finding rather than a disappointment.
The read is a Portugal win in an open game, with the shot lines on both front lines the part of the card doing the most work. Norway's three-from-three record for goals at both ends is a small sample carrying a lot of weight in the prices.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes model projections, not advice.