Wales host Denmark at 19:45 UK on Sunday 4 October at the Cardiff City Stadium, a week after losing 2-0 in Copenhagen.
Wales come into it off a 2-1 win over Norway on Thursday, their first of the window. Denmark arrive having conceded 2.33 goals a game, forty-ninth of 54 teams, in a group that has not been kind to them.
Wales lost 1-0 in Portugal and 2-0 in Denmark before beating Norway 2-1 in Cardiff on Thursday. The attacking numbers underneath are thin: 0.67 goals a game, thirty-first of 54, and 3.33 shots on target a game, thirty-sixth. Only a third of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals and only a third have seen goals at both ends, which are the thirty-sixth and thirty-fourth rates in the competition. They have not kept a clean sheet.
Denmark have lost two of three and been beaten 4-2 at home by Portugal on Thursday, having lost 3-2 in Norway to open the window. The 2-0 win over Wales is their only result of substance. They score two a game, ninth of 54, and concede 2.33, forty-ninth. They are also fiftieth for fouls at 8.67 a game, so they do not break play up. Team sheets are not confirmed.
The model projects 1.53 goals for Denmark and 1.20 for Wales, a combined 2.73, and it likes the home side considerably more than the price does.
Wales at 4.00 are rated 29.8 per cent against a margin-free implied 23.8. That six-point gap is the largest on Sunday's card. Denmark to win runs the other way, 45 per cent against an implied 49.8.
The totals lean quiet. Under 2.5 goals at 2.10 is projected at 48.7 against an implied 44.7, four points, and both teams to score, No, at 2.20 is 45.3 against 42.4. Wales have the lowest goals-at-both-ends rate of the four teams previewed this weekend, and in a competition where goals are shared out less evenly than in club football, a tight home win is a shape the market is not fully pricing.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee for this fixture has not been published in our data yet, so there is no card or foul average to read from.
The streaks are concentrated in the Welsh midfield and the Danish forward line. Rasmus Højlund and Mikkel Damsgaard have both had two or more shots in three straight games. Ethan Ampadu and Lewis Koumas have committed a foul in three straight for Wales, as has Morten Hjulmand for Denmark.
On the priced lines, Neco Williams has had a shot in four of his last five at two a game, priced 1.44, and has also made two or more tackles in three straight. Mohamed Daramy has hit the target in four of five at 1.53. A Welsh full back carrying that much of the shot volume says something about where the chances are coming from.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Denmark are favourites on reputation and on a 2-0 win in Copenhagen a week ago, and the model has them below their price for it. Wales have just beaten the side that beat Denmark, and 4.00 is the one price this weekend the model clearly rates.
The read is a close, low-scoring game in Cardiff in which the home price carries the margin and the goals markets lean under rather than over. Neither side's attacking numbers support the open game the totals are priced for.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes model projections, not advice.