Wales host Denmark at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff on 4 October 2026 at 19:45 in the UEFA Nations League. Wales's last five results: W D L L W (2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses). Denmark's last five: W D L W L (2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses). In their last 1 meetings, Wales have won 0, Denmark 1, with 0 draws.
Wales vs Denmark kicks off at 19:45 UK time on Sunday 4 October 2026 in the UEFA Nations League, at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff.
Wales vs Denmark is being played at Cardiff City Stadium in Cardiff, the home ground of Wales.
Wales's last five results read W D L L W (oldest to newest): 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses.
Denmark's last five results read W D L W L (oldest to newest): 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses.
Across the last 1 meetings Wales have won 0, Denmark have won 1 and 0 were drawn. The most recent was Denmark 2-0 Wales on 27 September 2026 in the UEFA Nations League.
Ethan Ampadu leads Wales with 16 fouls committed across their last 10 games.
Mikkel Damsgaard leads Denmark with 5 goals across their last 10 games.
Statz's predicted starting XIs for Wales and Denmark are on the Lineups tab of this page, and update to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
Statz's projection model makes Denmark the favourite with a 45% chance of winning, against 30% for Wales and 25% for the draw. Projected goals are Wales 1.2 - 1.5 Denmark.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1, a draw, at 12%. Both teams to score is 55% likely and over 2.5 goals 51%. Every scoreline's chance is on the Projections tab of this page.
Statz AI projects goals, shots, fouls, cards and more for every player and both teams in the Projections tab, and the Bets tab prices the best bet builder picks against bet365.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep 2026 | UEFA Nations League | Denmark vs Wales | 2-0 |
Statz's projection model expects Wales 1.2 - 1.5 Denmark in goals. It gives Wales a 30% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Denmark 45%. Both teams to score is 55% likely, over 1.5 goals 76% and over 2.5 goals 51%. The most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 1-0 (8%), 0-2 (8%).
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Draw | 12% |
| 0-1 | Denmark win | 10% |
| 1-2 | Denmark win | 9% |
| 1-0 | Wales win | 8% |
| 0-2 | Denmark win | 8% |
Statz's predicted starting XIs for Wales vs Denmark, updated to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
| # | Wales | Fouls committed | Denmark | Fouls committed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | E. Ampadu | 16 | R. Højlund | 9 |
| 2 | N. Williams | 12 | R. Kristensen | 8 |
| 3 | L. Koumas | 10 | J. Andersen | 7 |
| 4 | H. Wilson | 6 | M. Hjulmand | 7 |
| 5 | J. James | 6 | G. Isaksen | 6 |
| # | Wales | Shots | Denmark | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | D. James | 18 | R. Højlund | 25 |
| 2 | H. Wilson | 14 | G. Isaksen | 23 |
| 3 | N. Williams | 12 | M. Damsgaard | 18 |
| 4 | L. Koumas | 11 | P. Højbjerg | 18 |
| 5 | D. Brooks | 11 | M. Hjulmand | 10 |
| # | Wales | Shots on target | Denmark | Shots on target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L. Koumas | 7 | G. Isaksen | 11 |
| 2 | D. James | 7 | R. Højlund | 9 |
| 3 | J. James | 5 | M. Damsgaard | 7 |
| 4 | N. Williams | 4 | P. Højbjerg | 4 |
| 5 | D. Brooks | 4 | J. Andersen | 3 |
| # | Wales | Goals | Denmark | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | H. Wilson | 3 | M. Damsgaard | 5 |
| 2 | D. James | 3 | R. Højlund | 4 |
| 3 | N. Broadhead | 2 | G. Isaksen | 4 |
| 4 | D. Brooks | 2 | J. Andersen | 2 |
| 5 | J. Rodon | 1 | P. Dorgu | 1 |
| # | Wales | Yellow cards | Denmark | Yellow cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | E. Ampadu | 2 | J. Andersen | 2 |
| 2 | J. James | 2 | R. Kristensen | 2 |
| 3 | B. Davies | 1 | K. Schmeichel | 1 |
| 4 | H. Wilson | 1 | V. Nelsson | 1 |
| 5 | L. Koumas | 1 | M. Daramy | 1 |
Statz's bet builder picks for Wales vs Denmark: Mohamed Daramy 1+ shots on target (80% hit rate at 1.53); Ethan Ampadu 1+ shots (80% hit rate at 1.62); Neco Williams 1+ shots (80% hit rate at 1.44). Combined odds 3.57 at bet365.
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 0.7 | 41 of 54 |
| Goals against | 1.3 | 34 of 54 |
| Shots | 9 | 41 of 54 |
| Shots on target | 3.3 | 36 of 54 |
| Fouls | 12.7 | 24 of 54 |
| Tackles | 10.3 | 49 of 54 |
| Passes | 421.7 | 36 of 54 |
| Corners | 3 | 38 of 54 |
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 2 | 10 of 54 |
| Goals against | 2.3 | 49 of 54 |
| Shots | 15 | 19 of 54 |
| Shots on target | 4.7 | 21 of 54 |
| Fouls | 8.7 | 50 of 54 |
| Tackles | 15.7 | 17 of 54 |
| Passes | 544 | 14 of 54 |
| Corners | 4 | 28 of 54 |