Croatia host Spain at 19:45 UK on Tuesday 6 October at the Stadion Poljud in Split, a week after losing 4-1 in Oviedo and three days after being beaten 7-0 at home by England.
Every match either of these teams has played in this competition has gone over two and a half goals. Both rank first of 54 on that rate. The model has under 2.5 at 2.70 carrying thirteen points over its price, which is the widest disagreement on any fixture this week.
Croatia beat the Czech Republic 2-1 to open the group and have since conceded eleven goals in two matches. They are fifty-second of 54 for goals against at four a game and forty-third for shots on target at 2.67. The 7-0 was the heaviest home defeat on the Nations League card this window.
Spain have won all three, scoring 3.33 a game, which is second of 54, with 7.33 shots on target, which is third. They have also conceded in every match, so their goals-at-both-ends rate is 100 per cent, first of 54. They foul little and book less: forty-ninth of 54 for cards at 0.67 a game. Team sheets are not confirmed.
The model projects 1.91 goals for Spain and 0.86 for Croatia, a combined 2.77, and it disagrees with this market more loudly than with any other on the card.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.44, an implied 65.2 per cent. The model has it at 52.3. That is a thirteen-point gap, and it shows on the other side as under 2.5 at 2.70. Over 1.5 carries nearly eight points the same way. Spain to win is rated 62 per cent against an implied 72, and Croatia at 8.00 are 16.3 against 11.7.
What the model is doing is reading Croatia's shot counts rather than their last two scorelines. A side that has conceded eleven in two is priced as a shooting gallery, and the model says a Spain win does not have to be a 4-1. The competition's own base rate pulls the same way: both teams score in 46.6 per cent of Nations League matches against 52.2 per cent in the English leagues.
It is worth saying plainly that this is the model against six matches of evidence, and six matches is not nothing.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee for this fixture has not been published in our data yet, so there is no card or foul average to read from.
Lamine Yamal is on the longest run in the fixture: a goal in three straight, a shot on target in three straight and two or more shots in three straight. Álex Baena has also hit the target in three straight.
Croatia's one unbroken line is defensive. Luka Vušković has committed a foul in three straight games, which is what happens to a centre half in a back line facing 7.33 shots on target a game.
Spain take 6.10 projected corners to Croatia's 3.94, and the Spanish card count is the forty-ninth highest of 54 teams, so the booking markets sit almost entirely on the home side.
Spain should win and nothing here argues otherwise. The number that makes this fixture interesting is the total, where two extraordinary scorelines have taken the price a long way past what the model will support.
The read is a Spain win that is more likely to be controlled than chaotic, with the biggest model-versus-market gap of the week sitting on the quieter side of the goals line. Six games of evidence say otherwise, and the honest version of this page prints both.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes model projections, not advice.