England host the Czech Republic at 19:45 UK on Tuesday 6 October at Wembley, a week after winning 2-0 in Prague and three days after beating Croatia 7-0.
England now score 3.67 goals a game in this competition, first of all 54 teams. The model's read on the total here is still the quieter one.
England's three matches have produced a 2-3 defeat to Spain, a 2-0 win in Prague and 0-7 in Split. They are third of 54 for shots on target at 7.33 a game, seventh for corners, and have kept two clean sheets from three. They also foul rarely, forty-second of 54 at 9.67 a game.
The Czech Republic have lost all three: 1-2 to Croatia, 0-2 at home to England and 1-3 in Spain on Saturday. Forty-eighth of 54 for goals conceded at 2.33 a game, forty-ninth for shots on target at two, and fifty-third of 54 for corners at 0.67 a game, which is a remarkable way to go about attacking. Fifth for cards at 3.33. Team sheets are not confirmed.
The model projects 2.56 goals for England and 0.62 for the Czech Republic, a combined 3.18, and rates England 79.3 per cent to win against a margin-free implied 82.5.
The gap worth noticing is the total. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.40, an implied 67.3 per cent, and the model has it at 61.4. Under 2.5 at 2.88 therefore carries nearly six points. Both teams to score is matched almost exactly, 57.5 against 57.6 on the No.
A 7-0 pulls a market a long way, and the model is reading the Czech shot counts rather than England's last scoreline. There is a structural reason to take that seriously: across 363 Nations League matches both teams score in 46.6 per cent of games against 52.2 per cent in the English leagues, and a 3-0 at Wembley clears one line and not the other.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee for this fixture has not been published in our data yet, so there is no card or foul average to read from.
The England attacking runs are the longest on Tuesday's card. Harry Kane has scored in three straight and hit the target in three straight. So has Anthony Gordon, on both counts. Jude Bellingham has hit the target in three straight and Bukayo Saka has had two or more shots in three straight.
Four England forwards on unbroken three-game runs against a side that concedes 2.33 a game is the clearest thing on the page, and it sits in the shot markets rather than the goals markets.
The Czech Republic's own number to note is the corner count: 0.67 a game, fifty-third of 54. Anyone looking at corner lines should be looking at one side of them.
England win, and the result market prices that properly. The interesting disagreement is the total, where a 7-0 three days ago has moved the price well past what the model and the visitors' shot counts support.
The read is a comfortable England win that need not be a seven-goal one, with the shot and corner markets better defined than the scoreline in both directions.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes model projections, not advice.