Chapecoense vs Athletico PR Predictions, Team News and Betting Tips

Chapecoense host Athletico PR at the Arena Condá on Monday 12 October, with kick-off at 23:30 UK. It is 20th against 4th in the Campeonato Brasileiro table: Chapecoense have 18 points from 28 games and have won three times all season, while Athletico PR have 50 points from 29 and sit inside the top four.

The home side have shipped 57 goals, the most in the division, and they are coming off a 4-0 defeat at Vitória. Athletico PR have drawn five of their last ten, scoring in each of their last five league games, which makes goals the thing to expect.

How the teams arrive

Chapecoense's season has been built on draws and defeats: 3 wins, 9 draws and 16 defeats. The latest was the 4-0 loss at Vitória on 7 October. The last five also include a 1-1 draw at Atlético-MG on 19 September, a 1-2 home defeat to Internacional and a 2-1 win at Corinthians, their one win.

The numbers behind that are stark. Chapecoense score 1.04 goals a game, the 2nd fewest in the league, and concede 2.04, the most. They are also the 2nd fewest for shots on target and the 2nd fewest for corners, and have kept a clean sheet in only 7% of their games, the 2nd lowest. Both teams have scored in 64% of their matches, the 7th highest.

Athletico PR are the opposite on most measures. They average 1.55 goals a game, the 4th most, and concede 1.17, the 4th fewest. They have kept a clean sheet in 28% of games, the 5th highest, and have the 5th most shots on target. They have lost once in their last ten.

Their recent results have been lively. They drew 2-2 with Atlético-MG on 8 October, beat Bahia 2-1 on 20 September, and drew 3-3 at Coritiba before that. They lost 3-1 at Cruzeiro and drew 3-3 with Fluminense either side of it.

Predicted lineups

Chapecoense possible starting lineup:
Anderson; Bruno Tubarão, Kauan Faria, Doma, Bruno Pacheco; Camilo, Maurício Garcez, Yago Felipe; Marcinho, Giovanni Augusto, Tulio Eduardo

Athletico PR possible starting lineup:
Mycael; Carlos Terán, Arthur Dias, Lucas Esquivel, Gilberto; Jádson, Luiz Gustavo; Stiven Mendoza, João Cruz, Kerwin Vargas; Kevin Viveros

Players to watch

Kevin Viveros leads the visitors' attack. He has had a shot on target in seven straight games and at least two shots in seven in a row, averaging 3.6 shots a game over that run. A shot on target is 1.25 at bet365 and two or more shots is 1.14 at Ladbrokes. He has also committed a foul in 19 consecutive games, the longest run of its kind in the league.

João Cruz has had two or more shots in six straight games, averaging 2.5, and has done it in each of his last five outings, with four shots in the most recent. Two or more shots is 1.25 at Ladbrokes.

For Chapecoense, Camilo has committed a foul in eight straight games and averages 2.3 a game, while Marcinho has fouled in seven in a row at 1.22 with Midnite. Bruno Pacheco has made a tackle in seven straight games, averaging two.

Match Leaders

Odds and Statz prediction

We back Athletico PR, who are 2.00 at Coral to win, and our model gives them a 48% chance. Chapecoense are 4.20 at bet365 and the draw is 3.50 at Ladbrokes.

1-1 is the likeliest score, though we make Athletico PR the likelier winners, and our prediction is 1-1. We project 1.74 goals for the visitors against 1.22 for Chapecoense, and Athletico PR keep a clean sheet in 30% of our simulations against 18% for the hosts.

Goals are likely. Chapecoense have conceded in most of their games, and both teams scoring is 59% in our model. The referee is Wilton Pereira Sampaio, who has averaged three yellow cards across five games this season.