São Paulo welcome Vasco da Gama to the Estádio Nicolau Alayon on Sunday 18 October, with kick-off at 1am UK, in a Campeonato Brasileiro game between two sides separated by four places. São Paulo sit 10th on 39 points, while Vasco da Gama are 14th on 35 and arrive after a run of two defeats in their last ten league and cup games.
The hosts own one of the tighter defences in the division and Vasco carry the second-highest shots-on-target numbers in the league.
São Paulo are 10th after 30 games, with 11 wins, 6 draws and 13 defeats, and a goal difference of exactly zero (35 scored, 35 conceded). They beat Vitória 2-1 at home on 11 October, lost 2-0 at Cruzeiro three days earlier and went down 2-1 to Santos at home on 2 October.
The strength is at the back. São Paulo concede 1.17 goals a game, the 3rd fewest in the league, and they win more corners than anyone else at 6.87 a game. They also commit the 2nd most fouls, at 13.93 a game. Goals are harder to come by, with 1.17 a game the 8th fewest in the league, and only 40% of their games go over 2.5 goals, the 3rd lowest rate in the league.
Vasco da Gama are 14th with 9 wins, 8 draws and 12 defeats from 29 games, but the recent picture is much brighter. They have won six of their last ten and lost only two, a run that includes a 5-0 win over Coritiba on 19 September, a 2-1 win at Botafogo on 7 October and a 1-0 win at Boca Juniors in the Copa Sudamericana on Wednesday. They were held to a goalless draw by Remo on 10 October.
Vasco create plenty, averaging 5.45 shots on target a game, the 2nd most in the league, and win the 4th most corners at 6.00. The other side of that is a leaky defence: they concede 1.45 a game, the 9th most, and have kept a clean sheet in only 14% of games. Both teams have scored in 62% of their matches, the 8th highest rate.
São Paulo possible starting lineup:
Rafael; Newton, Arboleda, Sabino, Lucas Ramon; Bobadilla, Marcos Antônio; Iago, Luciano; Artur, Calleri
Vasco da Gama possible starting lineup:
Léo Jardim; José Luis Rodríguez, Saldivia, Robert Renan, Cuiabano; Sosa, Thiago Mendes; Andrés Gómez, Lescano, Nuno Moreira; Bruno Duarte
Vasco left-back Cuiabano has made at least one tackle in 19 straight games and averages 3.3 a game over that run.
Luciano has had a shot in seven straight games for São Paulo, averaging 3.1 a game, and is 1.03 at bet365 to keep it going.
Thiago Mendes has had a shot in five straight games for Vasco, averaging 1.8, and is 1.83 at bet365 to make it six. Robert Renan has made a tackle in 11 straight games and is 1.25 at bet365 to extend that, and he has also had a shot in four in a row, at 2.60 with Ladbrokes.
Sabino has made a tackle in five straight for São Paulo and is 1.17 at bet365. Elsewhere, Gabriel Pereira at 2.20 for a shot and Riquelme Avellar at 3.75 for a shot on target stand out among the Vasco names our model rates more highly than the prices suggest.
We back São Paulo, at 2.10 with Ladbrokes, with Vasco da Gama at 3.70 with bet365 and the draw at 3.40 with bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| São Paulo win | 2.10 (Ladbrokes) | 42% |
| Draw | 3.40 (bet365) | 29% |
| Vasco da Gama win | 3.70 (bet365) | 29% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 (Coral) | 54% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 (bet365) | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.05 (bet365) | 49% |
Our model has São Paulo scoring 1.45 and Vasco 1.17, which makes 1-1 the likeliest score at 14%, though we make São Paulo the most likely winners. A draw is in play. Behind the draw come 1-0 and 2-1 to the hosts. We predict São Paulo 1-1 Vasco da Gama.
Both teams scoring is rated at 54%, and Vasco's shooting volume against São Paulo's tight defence points to a game with a goal at each end. Over 2.5 goals comes in at 49%, a coin flip given São Paulo's low-scoring habits.