Corinthians host Vitória at Arena Corinthians in the Campeonato Brasileiro, with kick-off at midnight UK on Tuesday 20 October. The home side arrive in the worse run: Corinthians have lost five in a row in all competitions, while Vitória have won two of their last five.
The gap between them is only four points. Vitória are 13th on 36 points and Corinthians are 16th on 32, so a home win would close the gap to a single point.
Corinthians have taken 32 points from 30 games, winning eight, drawing eight and losing 14. They have lost their last five in all competitions, and the recent defeats have been heavy: 4-1 at Palmeiras, then 2-1 at Internacional and 1-3 at home to Fluminense. Before that came a 0-1 home loss to Estudiantes in the Copa Libertadores.
The goals are the problem. Corinthians have scored 31, the 2nd fewest in the division by the per-game rate, though they have been hard to break down at times, conceding at the 9th lowest rate and keeping clean sheets in 33% of games, the 4th highest. Their shots on target average of 3.8 a game is the 4th fewest.
Vitória have 10 wins, six draws and 14 defeats, with 33 scored and 44 conceded. Their form is patchier but livelier. They beat Chapecoense 4-0 on 7 October and Grêmio 1-0 in early September, but lost 2-1 at São Paulo last time out and 1-3 at home to Cruzeiro before that. A 2-2 draw at Mirassol completes the last five.
Vitória are rarely in games that open up: their both-teams-to-score rate of 40% is the lowest in the league, and they keep clean sheets in 37% of matches, the 3rd highest.
Corinthians possible starting lineup:
Hugo Souza; Matheuzinho, Gabriel Paulista, Gustavo Henrique, Matheus Bidu; Breno Bidon, Rodrigo Garro, André Luiz Santos Dias; André Carrillo, Kaio César, Yuri Alberto
Vitória possible starting lineup:
Lucas Arcanjo; Mateusinho, Luan Cândido, Jamerson, Renê; Emmanuel Martínez, Caíque Gonçalves, Erick; Emanuel Brítez, Matheuzinho, Diego Tarzia
Rodrigo Garro has committed at least one foul in 11 straight games and averages 1.7 a game, the 3rd best run in the competition. He is 1.22 at bet365 to make it 12, and to commit two or more is 2.00.
Yuri Alberto has put a shot on target in four of his last five and is 1.22 at bet365 for one or more. Corinthians have scored once or less in each of their last five games.
Matheus Bidu is the one to look at in the fouls market. The model ranks his chance of two or more fouls 2nd on the board, and that is available at 2.50.
Jamerson has had a shot in each of his last five games and is 1.73 at Ladbrokes for another.
Caíque Gonçalves has made at least one tackle in 10 straight games for Vitória at 2.4 a game, and his team-mate Zé Vitor matches that run while averaging 3.5 tackles.
We back Corinthians at 1.67 with Coral, and our model makes them the clear favourites at 53% to win. Vitória are 5.75 at bet365 and the draw is 3.75 at Ladbrokes.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Corinthians win | 1.67 (Coral) | 53% |
| Draw | 3.75 (Ladbrokes) | 29% |
| Vitória win | 5.75 (bet365) | 18% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 (Midnite) | 42% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.36 (Midnite) | 66% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.05 (bet365) | 38% |
We predict a 1-0 home win, the likeliest single scoreline at 15%, with 1-1 and 0-0 close behind, so a draw is in play. Our projection has Corinthians on 1.45 goals and Vitória on 0.75, and the model gives the hosts a 47% chance of keeping a clean sheet. With Vitória's league-low record for both teams scoring, the under-2.5 side of the goals market fits the profile of the game: we put the over at 38%.
For a combined angle, Jamerson to have a shot, Rodrigo Garro to commit a foul, Yuri Alberto to hit the target and André Carrillo to have a shot combine at 3.42.