Atlético Mineiro host Coritiba at the Arena MRV on Saturday 17 October, with kick-off at 10:30pm UK time. The hosts sit 7th in the Campeonato Brasileiro table on 47 points from 30 games, while Coritiba are 11th on 39. What makes this one lopsided is the form on each side: Atlético-MG are unbeaten in their last five games in all competitions, and Coritiba have shipped nine goals in their last two away trips.
Atlético-MG have kept things tight at the back all season. Their goals against figure of 1.17 per game is the 3rd fewest in the division, and they have won 13, drawn 8 and lost 9, scoring 41 and conceding 35. In their last five they have won three, drawn two and lost none: 3-0 against Montevideo City Torque in the Copa Sudamericana on Wednesday, 2-1 over Santos on 11 October, a 2-2 draw at Athletico PR, and a 1-0 win over Bragantino.
Coritiba arrive in a rougher patch. They have won 10, drawn 9 and lost 11 with 38 scored and 48 conceded, and their goals against figure of 1.6 per game is the 4th most in the league. Their last five brought two draws and three defeats, including a 5-0 loss at Vasco and a 4-0 loss at Fluminense. They did pick up a point in a 1-1 draw with Botafogo on Monday, and drew 3-3 with Athletico PR in September.
Coritiba average just 3.33 shots on target per game, the fewest in the league, and they also win the fewest corners, 3.73 per game. Atlético-MG average 4.8 shots on target, the 9th most.
Atlético Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Gabriel Delfim; Natanael, Léo Duarte, Vitor Hugo, Renan Lodi; Maycon, Tomás Pérez; Bernard, Tomás Cuello, Victor Hugo; Thiago Borbas
Coritiba possible starting lineup:
Pedro Morisco; Fabricio Bustos, Tiago Cóser, Jacy, Bruno Melo; Thiago Santos, Sebastián Gómez; Joaquín Lavega, Josué, Pedro Rocha; Paulo Roberto
Bernard has had a shot in four straight games, averaging 2.5 per game, and a shot on target in three straight. He is 2.00 at bet365 for a shot on target.
Pedro Rocha has had a shot in seven straight games, averaging 2.4 per game. His teammate Joaquín Lavega has a shot in six straight.
Thiago Santos has made at least one tackle in 14 straight games, averaging 1.8, which is the 7th-longest such run in the competition.
Fabricio Bustos has committed a foul in each of his last three games and is 1.80 at bet365 to do it again. Our model rates that one more likely than the price suggests.
We back Atlético Mineiro to win, and the best price on the home win is 1.53 at Ladbrokes. Our model gives them a 60% chance, with the draw at 24% and a Coritiba win at 16%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Atlético Mineiro win | 1.53 (Ladbrokes) | 60% |
| Draw | 4.20 (Ladbrokes) | 24% |
| Coritiba win | 6.50 (bet365) | 16% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 (bet365) | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 (bet365) | 52% |
We project Atlético-MG to score 1.87 goals to Coritiba's 0.87. The likeliest single score is 1-1, so a draw is in play, though we make the hosts clear favourites to win. Our prediction is Atlético Mineiro 1-1 Coritiba. Two of the next three scorelines, 2-0 and 1-0, are within a point of it and both go the hosts' way. Atlético-MG keep a clean sheet in 42% of our simulations, and both teams score in half of them.