Updated 23 October 2026.
Chapecoense play host to Fluminense at the Arena Condá on Saturday 24 October, with kick-off at 23:30 UK. The hosts are rooted to the bottom of the Campeonato Brasileiro table, on 18 points from 30 games, against a club in 5th on 51 points. Chapecoense have won three league games all season and have conceded 62 goals, the most in the division. Fluminense arrive after a 1-0 Copa Libertadores win at Palmeiras on Thursday.
We make Fluminense the likelier winners at 49%, with the draw at 26% and Chapecoense at 25%, and 1-1 is the single likeliest scoreline.
Chapecoense have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten games. They lost 1-0 at Botafogo on 17 October, went down 1-4 at home to Athletico PR five days earlier and were beaten 4-0 at Vitória before that. Their only point in the last five came in a 1-1 draw at Atlético-MG in September, and before that came a 1-2 home defeat to Internacional.
Chapecoense average 1 goal a game, the fewest in the league, and concede 2.07, the most. They have kept a clean sheet in just 7% of games, the lowest rate in the league. Their shots on target sit at 3.47 a game, the 2nd fewest. Both teams have scored in 63% of their games, the 6th highest rate, and 57% have gone over 2.5 goals, the 5th highest.
Fluminense beat Coritiba 4-0 on 9 October, then lost 1-0 at Flamengo, 1-2 at home to Palmeiras in the Libertadores and 1-2 at home to Santos in the league. Thursday's 1-0 win at Palmeiras ended a run of three straight defeats.
Their goals record is the 4th best in the league at 1.58 a game, and they average 5.58 shots on target, the 2nd most. Both teams have scored in 71% of their matches, the 2nd highest rate. At the back they concede 1.26, the 7th fewest.
Chapecoense possible starting lineup:
Anderson; Bruno Tubarão, Doma, João Paulo, Bruno Pacheco; Camilo, Yago Felipe, Fernando; Giovanni Augusto, Maurício Garcez; Tulio Eduardo
Fluminense possible starting lineup:
Fábio; Samuel Xavier, Ignácio, Igor Rabello, Guilherme Arana; Nonato, Luciano Acosta; Agustín Canobbio, Yeferson Soteldo, Hércules; Rodrigo Castillo
Maurício Garcez has had at least one shot in eight in a row, averaging 2.8 a game, and he is 1.11 at bet365 to extend it.
Tulio Eduardo has had a shot in five straight games at 2.4 a game, and Giovanni Augusto has fouled in five in a row and is 1.40 at bet365.
For Fluminense, Nonato has made a tackle in six straight games at 2.7 a game and has committed a foul in each of his last five, which is 1.25 at bet365. Agustín Canobbio has fouled in five in a row at two a game and is 1.18 at midnite. Igor Rabello has made a tackle in each of his last five, which is 1.40 at bet365.
We back Fluminense to win, and the best price on them is 1.91 at Coral. Chapecoense are 4.20 at bet365 and the draw is 3.70 at Coral. Both teams to score is 1.75 at bet365 and over 2.5 goals is 1.85.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense win | 4.20 (bet365) | 25% |
| Draw | 3.70 (Coral) | 26% |
| Fluminense win | 1.91 (Coral) | 49% |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 (bet365) | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 (bet365) | 55% |
We project 1.18 goals for Chapecoense and 1.71 for Fluminense. Both teams to score comes in at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%. Our prediction is Chapecoense 1-1 Fluminense, the single likeliest scoreline at 12%, though we make Fluminense 49% to win against 26% for the draw and 25% for Chapecoense. 1-2 is next at 10%.
Our bet builder for this game uses Guilherme Arana to have a shot, Igor Rabello to make a tackle, and Giovanni Augusto and Nonato to commit a foul. Each of the four has done it in all of his last five games, and Nonato has averaged three fouls a game across that run.
Kick-off at the Arena Condá is at 23:30 UK on Saturday 24 October 2026.
We predict a 1-1 draw as the likeliest scoreline, though we make Fluminense the likelier winners at 49% against 25% for Chapecoense, with the draw at 26%.
Fluminense are favourites, at 1.91 with Coral. Chapecoense are 4.20 at bet365 and the draw is 3.70 at Coral.
We give both teams to score a 58% chance, and bet365 price it at 1.75. Both teams have scored in 63% of Chapecoense's games and 71% of Fluminense's.
Maurício Garcez has had at least one shot in eight in a row for Chapecoense, and Nonato has made a tackle in six straight games for Fluminense.
Chapecoense are 20th of 20 on 18 points from 30 games. Fluminense are 5th on 51 points from 31.
Chapecoense: Anderson; Bruno Tubarão, Doma, João Paulo, Bruno Pacheco; Camilo, Yago Felipe, Fernando; Giovanni Augusto, Maurício Garcez; Tulio Eduardo. Fluminense: Fábio; Samuel Xavier, Ignácio, Igor Rabello, Guilherme Arana; Nonato, Luciano Acosta; Agustín Canobbio, Yeferson Soteldo, Hércules; Rodrigo Castillo.