Updated 24 October 2026.
Los Angeles FC welcome LA Galaxy to BMO Stadium with a 1:00am UK kick-off on Monday 26 October, a city derby between 6th and 8th in the Western Conference standings. LAFC sit on 46 points from 31 games and Galaxy on 40. LAFC have conceded the 3rd fewest goals per game in MLS, while Galaxy have conceded 52 in 31.
We make LAFC clear favourites. Heung-min Son and Denis Bouanga are on long shooting runs for them, and João Klauss and Robert Taylor have each had a shot in five straight for Galaxy.
Los Angeles FC are unbeaten in three: a 1-1 draw with Vancouver on 11 October, a 3-1 win over Austin on 15 October and a 1-1 draw at NYCFC on 17 October. Before that came a 1-0 defeat at Dallas on 27 September. Six of their last ten games have been draws, with two wins and two defeats, and across the season they have 12 wins, 10 draws and 9 defeats.
LAFC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games, the 2nd highest rate in MLS, and their goals record stands at 48 for and 33 against. They average 6.06 corners a game, the 3rd most in the league.
LA Galaxy followed a 6-2 loss at St. Louis with a 2-0 win over Portland and a 2-2 draw with San Diego on 18 October. Before that they beat Colorado 3-2 and won 3-2 at Minnesota. Both teams have scored in 74% of their games, the 4th highest rate in the league, and they have 43 goals for and 52 against.
Galaxy average 5.39 shots on target a game, the 4th most in MLS. They are also carded 2.35 times a game, the 6th most.
Los Angeles FC possible starting lineup:
Lloris; Hollingshead, Long, Tafari, Cheberko; Delgado, Igor Jesus, Walta; Shaffelburg, Son, Bouanga
LA Galaxy possible starting lineup:
Marcinkowski; Miller, Garcés, Haak, Nelson; Roberto, Ruiz; Reus, Thommy, Taylor; Klauss
Heung-min Son has had two or more shots in nine straight games, averaging 4.3 across the run, and a shot on target in seven in a row. A shot on target is 1.25 at Ladbrokes.
Denis Bouanga has had at least one shot in 11 straight games, averaging 3.4 across the run.
Yevgen Cheberko has made at least one tackle in 16 consecutive games, averaging three a game across the run.
João Klauss has had a shot on target in five straight games, averaging 2.0, and two or more shots in each of them. A shot on target is 1.44 at bet365.
Robert Taylor has had at least one shot in five straight games, averaging 2.0 across the run, and is 1.20 at bet365 for another.
We back Los Angeles FC to win, and bet365 have them at 1.53. Our model gives them a 57% chance of the win, against 23% for the draw and 20% for Galaxy. Over 2.5 goals is 1.44 at bet365 and both teams to score is 1.53; we make them 61% and 59%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| LAFC win | 1.53 (bet365) | 57% |
| Draw | 4.75 (bet365) | 23% |
| LA Galaxy win | 5.25 (bet365) | 20% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 (bet365) | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 (bet365) | 61% |
We project 2.01 goals for LAFC and 1.12 for Galaxy. 1-1 is the likeliest single score at 10.8%, so that is our prediction, with 2-1 next at 9.9%, though we make a LAFC win the likeliest result overall at 57%.
Prediction: Los Angeles FC 1-1 LA Galaxy.
Los Angeles FC host LA Galaxy at BMO Stadium with kick-off at 1:00am UK time on Monday 26 October 2026.
We predict a 1-1 draw, though our model makes a LAFC win the likeliest result overall at 57%, with the draw at 23% and a Galaxy win at 20%.
Los Angeles FC. They are 1.53 at bet365, with LA Galaxy at 5.25 and the draw at 4.75.
We give both teams to score a 59% chance, and bet365 have it at 1.53. Both teams have scored in 74% of Galaxy's games, the 4th highest rate in MLS.
Heung-min Son has had two or more shots in nine straight games, Denis Bouanga has had a shot in 11 in a row, and João Klauss has had a shot on target in five straight.
Los Angeles FC are 6th in the Western Conference on 46 points after 31 games and LA Galaxy are 8th on 40 points.
LAFC: Lloris; Hollingshead, Long, Tafari, Cheberko; Delgado, Igor Jesus, Walta; Shaffelburg, Son, Bouanga. LA Galaxy: Marcinkowski; Miller, Garcés, Haak, Nelson; Roberto, Ruiz; Reus, Thommy, Taylor; Klauss.