SJ Earthquakes host Nashville SC at PayPal Park in Major League Soccer on Sunday 18 October, with kick-off at 03:30 UK time. The league's best defence arrives to face a home side that keeps finding a way to draw. Nashville SC lead the Eastern Conference on 66 points, while SJ Earthquakes are 4th in the West on 47, and the visitors have conceded only 22 goals in 29 games.
San Jose have not lost in their last five, but three of those ended level. Nashville have won four of their last five, and the other was a 2-2 draw at Inter Miami.
SJ Earthquakes are 4th in the Western Conference with 13 wins, 8 draws and 8 defeats from 29, scoring 51 and conceding 41. They beat Houston 1-0 at home on 13 September, drew 2-2 with LAFC, then beat Portland 3-1. They have since drawn 1-1 at Colorado and 1-1 at RSL on Thursday.
They lead MLS for corners, averaging 6.28 a game. They score 1.76 a game, the 10th most, and concede 1.41, the 8th fewest. They have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their games, the 7th highest rate. Their shots on target average of 5.03 is the 10th most.
Nashville SC lead the East with 20 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats, and a goal difference of plus 41. After the 2-2 at Inter Miami they beat Chicago Fire 3-0, Toronto 2-0, Austin 4-1 away and Sporting KC 4-0 on Thursday.
Nashville score 2.17 a game, the 2nd most, and concede 0.76, the fewest in MLS. They keep a clean sheet in 48% of games, the highest rate in the division, and both teams have scored in only 45% of their matches, the 2nd lowest. They also pick up few cards, 1.76 a game, the 6th fewest, and their shots on target figure of 5.34 is the 5th most.
SJ Earthquakes possible starting lineup:
Gunn; Jasinski, Romney, Munie, Roberts; Costa, Löwen, Vieira; Mendoza, Judd, Werner
Nashville SC possible starting lineup:
Schwake; Nájar, Palacios, Woledzi, Baker-Whiting; Yazbek, Corcoran; Espinoza, Mukhtar, Saad; Yáñez
Hany Mukhtar has had three or more shots in five straight games and averages 4.6 a game across 29 appearances. He is 1.44 at bet365 to make it six.
Preston Judd has had a shot in 11 straight games and a shot on target in each of his last five. He is 1.44 at bet365 for a shot on target.
Cristian Espinoza has had two or more shots in five straight games and a shot on target in four of his last five, and is 1.40 at bet365 for a shot on target.
Matthew Corcoran has made at least one tackle in 19 straight games, averaging 2.9 a game, the 2nd-best run in MLS.
Elias Saad has had a shot in 10 straight games and averages two a game, and is 1.07 at bet365 to keep that going.
We back Nashville SC to win, and the best price is 1.86 at bet365. Our model gives them a 42% chance, against 32% for San Jose and 26% for a draw. A draw is in play, as 1-1 is the likeliest single scoreline.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| SJ Earthquakes to win | 3.60 (bet365) | 32% |
| Draw | 3.90 (bet365) | 26% |
| Nashville SC to win | 1.86 (bet365) | 42% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 (bet365) | 62% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 (bet365) | 82% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 (bet365) | 58% |
We project 1.41 goals for San Jose and 1.62 for Nashville. Our prediction is a 1-1 draw, though we make Nashville the more likely winner. Nashville keep clean sheets often, but our model still gives both teams to score a 62% chance. Our player projections point to Mukhtar and Judd as the shooters to follow.