LA Galaxy welcome San Diego to Dignity Health Sports Park on Sunday 18 October, with kick-off at 3.30am UK. It is a meeting between the 8th and 12th-placed sides in the Western Conference, and it should be a game with goals at both ends: Galaxy have seen both teams score in 73% of their matches, and San Diego have just shared two 3-3 draws in their last four.
LA Galaxy sit 8th on 39 points from 30 games, with 10 wins, 9 draws and 11 defeats. They come in off a 2-0 home win over Portland, but four days earlier they were beaten 6-2 at St. Louis. Before that came two wins in a row, a 3-2 over Colorado and a 3-2 at Minnesota. They have won five of their last ten.
At the front, Galaxy are not prolific, scoring 1.37 goals a game, the 9th fewest in the league. But they get plenty of efforts away: their shots on target average of 5.27 is the 7th most in MLS. They also concede 1.67 a game, the 13th most.
San Diego are 12th on 33 points from 29 games, with 8 wins, 9 draws and 12 defeats. Their goals have been plentiful at 1.76 a game, the 10th most, but they let in 1.86, the 9th most. They have not won in their last five: a 3-3 draw with Houston on Thursday followed a 4-1 defeat at New York RB, a 3-3 at Austin and a 2-2 at Inter Miami. Before those came a 5-0 home defeat to Philadelphia. Of their last ten matches they have won only two, and 24% of their games have ended in a clean sheet, the 7th highest rate in the division.
LA Galaxy possible starting lineup:
Marcinkowski; Calegari, Glesnes, Haak, Aude; Ruiz, Thommy, Miller; Taylor, Reus, Klauss
San Diego possible starting lineup:
dos Santos; Verhoeven, Duah, Murphy, Sargeant; Tverskov, Godoy, Pirani; Dreyer, Ingvartsen, Achouri
Marco Reus has had a shot in each of his last five games and averages 2.2 a match. He has put one on target in four of his last five and is 1.33 at bet365 to do it again.
Justin Haak is a centre-back with a habit of getting forward: he has had a shot in five straight games, and he is 1.44 at bet365 to make it six. He has also made a tackle in 13 games in a row.
João Klauss has averaged 1.8 shots on target a game, hitting the target in four of his last five outings and managing three in each of two of them. He is 1.20 at bet365 for a shot on target.
For San Diego, Manu Duah has made a tackle in seven straight games, and Gabriel Pirani in six. On the Galaxy side, Lucas Sanabria has a tackle in 16 consecutive games, the 3rd-longest run in the league, at 2.1 a game.
We back LA Galaxy, at 2.10 with bet365 to win. Our model gives them a 47% chance, with San Diego at 30% and the draw at 23%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| LA Galaxy win | 2.10 (bet365) | 47% |
| Draw | 4.00 (midnite) | 23% |
| San Diego win | 3.10 (bet365) | 30% |
| Both teams to score | 1.36 (bet365) | 69% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 (bet365) | 68% |
We expect goals, with Galaxy projected at 1.97 and San Diego at 1.55, and 1-1 is the likeliest scoreline at 10%, though we make Galaxy more likely to win. A draw is in play. For the player markets, the Galaxy shooters stand out: our projection puts Galaxy on 6.26 shots on target to San Diego's 4.74, and Reus, Haak, Klauss and Ruiz are all among our shot picks. Pablo Ruiz has had a shot in four of his last five and is 1.20 at bet365. Together, those four shot legs make up a bet builder at 2.76.
Our prediction: LA Galaxy 1-1 San Diego.