Philadelphia Union host Charlotte at Subaru Park on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 7:30pm UK, in a Major League Soccer game between the 6th and 5th-placed sides in the Eastern Conference. Only a point separates them, with Charlotte on 46 and the Union on 45, but the two arrive in very different shape. Philadelphia have won eight on the bounce, while Charlotte were beaten in Columbus in midweek.
The Union have scored 59 goals in 29 games and our model expects them to add to that, projecting 2.59 goals for them against 1.34 for the visitors.
It is hard to find a hotter side in the division than Philadelphia Union. They have won eight straight, the latest a 3-1 win at Chicago Fire in midweek. Before that came a 2-1 home win over RSL, a 4-2 win over Orlando City, a 4-3 win at Sporting KC and a 5-0 demolition of San Diego. That is 18 goals in five games.
The season numbers fit. They score 2.03 goals a game, the 5th most in the league, and sit on 5.38 shots on target a game, the 4th most. They also lead the division for fouls at 15.52 a game. They are 6th in the Eastern Conference with 13 wins, 6 draws and 10 defeats, and a goal difference of +13 on the standings.
Charlotte are 5th in the East and have been less consistent, with two defeats in their last four. Their latest result was a 3-1 defeat at Columbus, and before it a 3-2 home win over Dallas and a 1-0 home loss to Chicago Fire. Away from home they have been better than that suggests, winning 2-1 at DC United and drawing 3-3 at Cincinnati.
Charlotte score 1.76 a game, the 10th most, and concede 1.48, the 11th fewest. They are among the cleanest sides in the league, committing 9.48 fouls a game, the 2nd fewest.
Philadelphia Union possible starting lineup:
Blake; Westfield, Harriel, Pierre, Wagner; Jean Jacques, Lukić, Sullivan; Vassilev, Damiani, Iloski
Charlotte possible starting lineup:
Kahlina; Byrne, Kessler, Johnson, Schnegg; Westwood, Bronico; Abada, Biel, Saint-Maximin; Toklomati
Bruno Damiani has had a shot in eight straight games, averages three a game, and has fouled at least once in 12 in a row. He is 1.20 at bet365 for a shot on target, and has managed one in four of his last five.
Milan Iloski has had a shot on target in eight consecutive games, averaging 1.8, and is 1.15 at Ladbrokes to make it nine.
Cavan Sullivan has had two or more shots in seven straight games, averaging three, and is 1.18 at bet365 to keep that going.
For Charlotte, Allan Saint-Maximin has hit the target in six straight games. He is 1.80 at Ladbrokes. Liel Abada has had a shot in seven in a row, averaging 2.3, and is 1.08 at bet365.
We back Philadelphia Union to win, and bet365 have them at 1.57. A Saint-Maximin shot on target and a Damiani shot on target make an obvious pair of player legs, combining at 2.30 across the two.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union win | 1.57 (bet365) | 64% |
| Draw | 4.75 (bet365) | 19% |
| Charlotte win | 4.75 (bet365) | 17% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 (bet365) | 69% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 (bet365) | 75% |
Our prediction is Philadelphia Union 2-1 Charlotte, the single likeliest scoreline at 9%, with 3-1 and 1-1 next. Both sides score in 69% of our simulations, and the Union keep a clean sheet in only 26%. Both teams share a 69% both-teams-to-score rate across the season, so goals at both ends look likely.