Real Salt Lake host SJ Earthquakes at America First Field in Major League Soccer, with kick-off at 2:30am UK on Thursday 15 October. The home side have lost nine of their last ten and sit 11th. San Jose are 4th, unbeaten in their last five and sending out a striker who has had a shot in ten straight games.
Even so, the bookmakers and our model both lean towards the home side.
RSL have 32 points from 28 games, with nine wins, five draws and 14 defeats, and a goal difference of minus five. The one win in that spell was a 3-0 home victory over New England on 27 September. On Saturday they lost 2-1 at Philadelphia, and before the New England game they went down 2-0 at Seattle, 3-0 at home to Vancouver and 2-0 at home to NYCFC.
Their numbers are better than the results: they average 5.18 shots on target a game, and both teams have scored in 68% of their matches. The weakness is at the back, where they have kept a clean sheet in only 11% of games.
San Jose have 46 points from 28 games, with 13 wins, seven draws and eight defeats, and sit 4th in the Western Conference. They were beaten in three straight games a few weeks ago but are now unbeaten in five: a 3-2 win at San Diego, a 1-0 win over Houston, a 2-2 draw with LAFC, a 3-1 win over Portland and a 1-1 draw at Colorado on Sunday.
They score 1.79 goals a game and concede 1.43, with a clean sheet in 25% of games, and the standout figure is corners: San Jose average 6.32 a game.
Real Salt Lake possible starting lineup:
Cabral; De Fougerolles, Quinton, Henry; Spierings, Caliskan, Junqua; Marczuk, Hezarkhani, Solans, Guilavogui
SJ Earthquakes possible starting lineup:
Gunn; Ricketts, Marie, Romney, Munie; Vieira, Löwen, Floriani; Mendoza, Judd, Werner
Preston Judd has had a shot in ten straight games for San Jose, averaging 2.3 a game, and he has put a shot on target in four of his last five. A shot on target is 1.40 at bet365.
Eduard Löwen has had two or more shots in each of his last five, averaging 3.2 a game with a high of five. Two or more shots is 1.29 at bet365.
Stijn Spierings has won at least one tackle in 13 straight games for RSL, at 1.8 a game.
Dominik Marczuk has had a shot in six straight games and is 1.14 at bet365 to make it seven. Team-mate Morgan Guilavogui has shot in five in a row and has made a tackle in six straight.
We back Real Salt Lake to win, a view the bookmakers share: they are 1.91 at bet365, with the draw at 4.00 and San Jose at 3.50. Both teams to score is 1.44 and over 2.5 goals is 1.48, both at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Real Salt Lake win | 1.91 (bet365) | 41% |
| Draw | 4.00 (bet365) | 26% |
| SJ Earthquakes win | 3.50 (bet365) | 33% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 (bet365) | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.48 (bet365) | 61% |
Our model has 1.67 goals for RSL and 1.48 for San Jose, which makes for an open game. 1-1 is the likeliest score, though we make Real Salt Lake slightly more likely to win. Both teams score in 64% of our simulations and the match goes over 2.5 goals in 61%.
A two-leg player combination of Löwen to have two or more shots and Judd to have a shot on target pays 1.81 at bet365.
Our prediction is Real Salt Lake 1-1 SJ Earthquakes, with a draw clearly in play.