Bayern Munich have won nine of their last ten. Their goal difference stands at +81. They are champions of the Bundesliga with a title already wrapped up and Harry Kane is the most dangerous striker in European football right now. Heidenheim are relegated, sitting 18th with 22 points from 34 games, and they roll into the Allianz Arena on Saturday with absolutely nothing to lose. The Statz model gives Bayern an 85.5% chance of winning. This is not a match – it is a ceremonial hammering.
Full data and projections on the Bayern vs Heidenheim H2H page on Statz.
Harry Kane is the headline act. 2.83 shots on target per game, 1.39 goals projected for this fixture, and a free-scoring side behind him. Michael Olise brings 2.00 SOT and a 2.05 fouls drawn average – he will be getting fouled in this one. Nicolas Jackson (SOT 2.09, 0.68 goals projected) adds another lethal option, while Luis Diaz contributes 1.50 SOT. Bayern have attackers at every level of this squad.
Heidenheim are going through the motions. Already down, their season is mathematically over and the squad has little reason to push hard. Budu Zivzivadze leads their attack but with limited support.
Bayern: WWWWDWWWWW – that is W9 D1 L0. 34 scored, 13 conceded. This is a machine in full flow. The one draw barely registers as a blip.
Heidenheim: LDLLLDDWLW – W2 D3 L5. They grabbed a win last time out but the context here is completely different. This is the Allianz Arena and Bayern are firing on all cylinders.
Bayern Munich project 4.09 goals, 10.48 shots on target, 6.14 corners. That goal projection is enormous – 4.09 expected goals for the home side alone. Over 2.5 goals is at 89.5% probability. BTTS sits at 68.0% suggesting Heidenheim will score even in the middle of a beating.
Heidenheim project 1.15 goals – enough to keep BTTS alive even with the scoreline likely getting out of hand. The Bundesliga has seen bigger scorelines than 4-1 this season.
All four legs from the Statz SGP data on bet365:
Combined at approximately 6.56 on bet365.
Bayern Munich vs a relegated Heidenheim side at the Allianz Arena. Over 2.5 goals at 89.5% is the headline number – Bayern project over 4 goals alone and Heidenheim will likely get one back. The Harry Kane to score leg at 1.50 with a 100% hit rate over five games is as solid as bet builder legs come. This one should be done by half-time.