Livingston xG 2025/2026

Livingston expected goals 2025/2026: 2025/2026

Games: 38
Expected goals (xG): 41.31
Goals scored: 40
Goals minus xG: -1.31
Expected goals against (xGA): 73.92
Goals conceded: 75
xGA minus goals conceded: -1.08
Expected points (xPts): 36.02
Points: 21
Points minus xPts: -15.02
Verdict: Due an upturn

Are Livingston overperforming their expected goals?

Livingston have taken 15.0 points fewer than their chances warranted over 38 games: -1.3 goals against their xG, and -1.1 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.

Livingston results against expected goals by form window and venue

Window	Games	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xGA	Conceded	xGA minus conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
25/26	38	41.31	40	-1.31	73.92	75	-1.08	36.02	21	-15.02
Last 10	10	11.69	10	-1.69	16.94	17	-0.06	10.47	8	-2.47
Last 5	5	6.49	5	-1.49	7.85	9	-1.15	5.97	5	-0.97
Home	18	20.83	24	+3.17	33.62	36	-2.38	19.24	11	-8.24
Away	20	20.48	16	-4.48	40.30	39	+1.30	16.78	10	-6.78

Livingston expected goals match by match, 2025/2026

Date	Competition	Opponent	Score	xG	xGA	xPts	Points	Deserved result
17 May	Scottish Premiership	Kilmarnock (H)	1-4	0.71	2.31	0.46	0	L
12 May	Scottish Premiership	Dundee Utd (A)	0-0	1.06	1.31	1.18	1	L
9 May	Scottish Premiership	Dundee (A)	3-0	2.21	1.99	1.52	0	W
1 May	Scottish Premiership	Aberdeen (H)	2-2	1.92	0.97	2.00	1	W
25 Apr	Scottish Premiership	St. Mirren (A)	0-2	0.59	1.27	0.81	3	L
11 Apr	Scottish Premiership	Dundee Utd (A)	3-2	1.69	1.88	1.27	0	L
5 Apr	Scottish Premiership	Hearts (H)	2-2	1.44	1.80	1.16	1	L
21 Mar	Scottish Premiership	Kilmarnock (A)	2-0	0.99	1.76	0.87	0	L
14 Mar	Scottish Premiership	Hibernian (A)	0-0	0.16	2.25	0.18	1	L
28 Feb	Scottish Premiership	St. Mirren (H)	1-1	0.92	1.40	1.02	1	L
22 Feb	Scottish Premiership	Rangers (H)	2-2	0.26	4.03	0.05	1	L
14 Feb	Scottish Premiership	Dundee (A)	2-2	1.35	1.03	1.60	1	W
11 Feb	Scottish Premiership	Celtic (A)	2-1	1.09	2.97	0.46	0	L
4 Feb	Scottish Premiership	Falkirk (H)	1-2	0.90	1.91	0.73	0	L
31 Jan	Scottish Premiership	Motherwell (H)	0-2	0.35	1.25	0.61	0	L
24 Jan	Scottish Premiership	Aberdeen (A)	6-2	1.31	2.93	0.58	0	L
20 Jan	Scottish Premiership	St. Mirren (H)	1-1	1.32	1.55	1.22	1	L
10 Jan	Scottish Premiership	Kilmarnock (H)	1-1	1.46	1.72	1.22	1	L
3 Jan	Scottish Premiership	Hearts (A)	1-0	0.78	2.04	0.60	0	L
30 Dec	Scottish Premiership	Dundee Utd (H)	1-3	0.57	3.57	0.15	0	L
27 Dec	Scottish Premiership	Celtic (H)	2-4	1.38	4.09	0.32	0	L
20 Dec	Scottish Premiership	St. Mirren (A)	1-0	0.31	2.69	0.18	0	L
13 Dec	Scottish Premiership	Dundee (H)	2-2	1.10	0.37	1.95	1	W
6 Dec	Scottish Premiership	Motherwell (A)	3-0	1.16	2.21	0.77	0	L
30 Nov	Scottish Premiership	Aberdeen (H)	0-1	1.16	0.95	1.51	0	W
22 Nov	Scottish Premiership	Rangers (A)	2-1	0.98	0.96	1.37	0	W
8 Nov	Scottish Premiership	Falkirk (A)	1-1	0.96	1.59	0.93	1	L
1 Nov	Scottish Premiership	Hibernian (H)	2-2	2.23	1.01	2.14	1	W
25 Oct	Scottish Premiership	Motherwell (H)	1-2	2.37	2.37	1.40	0	W
18 Oct	Scottish Premiership	Hibernian (A)	4-0	0.54	3.41	0.16	0	L

Livingston players: goals against expected goals, 2025/2026

Player	Position	Apps	Minutes	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xG per 90
Lewis Smith	midfielder	35	2074	3.68	7	+3.32	0.16
Jeremy Bokila	attacker	23	900	3.10	5	+1.90	0.31
Scott Pittman	midfielder	35	2585	3.37	5	+1.63	0.12
Connor McLennan	attacker	16	767	2.30	3	+0.70	0.27
Brooklyn Kabongolo	defender	16	1200	1.38	2	+0.62	0.10
Danny Wilson	defender	32	2689	0.55	1	+0.45	0.02
Graham Carey	midfielder	7	162	0.81	1	+0.19	0.45
Cristian Montano	midfielder	26	1755	1.97	2	+0.03	0.10
Mahamadou Susoho	midfielder	18	1257	1.14	1	-0.14	0.08
Mohamad Sylla	midfielder	32	2196	1.30	1	-0.30	0.05
Stevie May	attacker	34	1910	2.51	2	-0.51	0.12
Cammy Kerr	defender	11	729	0.78	0	-0.78	0.10
Macaulay Tait	midfielder	33	2456	0.80	0	-0.80	0.03
Danny Finlayson	defender	35	3099	1.06	0	-1.06	0.03
Tete Yengi	attacker	19	1057	3.47	2	-1.47	0.30
Joel Nouble	attacker	10	556	2.77	1	-1.77	0.45
Robbie Muirhead	attacker	33	1548	7.75	5	-2.75	0.45

Scottish Premiership 2025/2026: every team's points against expected points

#	Team	MP	xG	Goals	xGA	Conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
1	Hearts	38	57.2	67	38.9	34	63.9	80	+16.1
2	Celtic	38	82.7	73	39.3	41	73.7	82	+8.3
3	Dundee	38	40.3	42	65.4	61	36.9	42	+5.1
4	Rangers	38	74.4	76	46.2	43	67.2	72	+4.8
5	Motherwell	38	56.1	59	47.9	36	58.7	61	+2.3
6	Hibernian	38	56.3	58	50	44	57.5	57	-0.5
7	Dundee United	38	54.3	49	65.3	60	47.4	45	-2.4
8	Falkirk	38	53	50	54	62	51.8	49	-2.8
9	Kilmarnock	38	50.8	50	71.3	68	43.3	40	-3.3
10	Aberdeen	38	48	40	59.1	55	45.7	40	-5.7
11	Livingston	38	41.3	40	73.9	75	36	21	-15
12	St. Mirren	38	47.5	30	50.6	55	50.1	34	-16.1