France host Italy at 19:45 UK on Friday 2 October at the Stade de France, with both sides already through the awkward half of League A. France have taken six points from two away trips without conceding a goal. Italy have lost at home and won 4-1 in Turkey, which is a fair summary of the last two years.
The headline number is the one France have not produced. They have scored one goal in each of their two wins, and the model projects 2.32 here.
France beat Belgium 1-0 in Liege on Monday and Turkey 1-0 in Istanbul three days before that. Two away trips, two clean sheets, two single goals. In this Nations League window they rank first of 54 teams for goals conceded and first for clean sheet percentage, and they have not been involved in a game with goals at both ends. That is a remarkable turn for a side that lost 4-6 at home to England in July and 0-2 to Spain the week before.
Italy arrive on the back of a 4-1 win in Turkey, which was their best attacking performance in some time, and a 0-2 home defeat to Belgium before it. Two goals a game puts them ninth of 54 for scoring, and seven shots on target a game puts them fourth. The defending is the problem rather than the forward line. Team sheets are not confirmed.
The model projects 2.32 goals for France and 0.91 for Italy, a combined 3.23, and prices France at 69 per cent to win against a margin-free implied 65.4. That is the only selection on the match markets where the model and the price disagree by more than three and a half points, and it disagrees in the favourite's direction.
Everything else is close to exact. Over 2.5 goals is projected at 62.5 per cent against an implied 62.5, which is as tightly matched as this sheet gets. Both teams to score is rated 53.7 against an implied 55.7, two points the wrong way. Over 1.5 sits at 83.2 against 82.8.
Worth holding in mind against France's two clean sheets: in a tournament where one side is this much stronger, the goals tend to arrive at one end. International football scores the same goals as club football and shares them out far less evenly, with both teams scoring in 46.6 per cent of Nations League matches against 52.2 per cent in the English leagues. A 3-0 clears over 2.5 and pays nothing on the other line.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee is Jesús Gil Manzano, averaging 4.5 yellow cards and 26.5 fouls a game across four matches this season. Italy give him plenty to work with: they are fifth of 54 in this window for fouls at 16.5 a game, against France's 12.
In the player markets the shot lines on the France front line are the clearest material. Michael Olise has had a shot on target in all five of his last five, twelve in total at 2.4 a game, priced at 1.29. Désiré Doué managed it in four of his last five, 1.2 a game, at 1.25. Further back, Maghnes Akliouche has made two or more tackles in four of his last five, 2.4 a game, at 1.53.
A home side projected for 18.4 shots against one projected for 10 is the shape of fixture where the shot counts hold up better than the scoreline markets do.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
France should win, and the model backs the price rather than fighting it. The caution is that two 1-0 wins and a projection of 2.32 goals are not the same team, and the market has already priced the goals markets to the model's own number in both directions.
The read is a France win on the back of a defence that has not conceded in this window, with the cards and the shot counts more legible than the scoreline. Italy's foul rate and Gil Manzano's whistle are the combination worth a second look.
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