Updated 15 November 2026.
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | Leverkusen win | 10.7% |
| 2-1 | Leverkusen win | 9.4% |
| 3-0 | Leverkusen win | 8.8% |
| 1-1 | Draw | 8.3% |
| 1-0 | Leverkusen win | 8.1% |
| 3-1 | Leverkusen win | 7.7% |
| 4-0 | Leverkusen win | 5.4% |
| 4-1 | Leverkusen win | 4.8% |
| 2-2 | Draw | 4.2% |
| 0-0 | Draw | 4.1% |
| Market | Chance |
|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 54% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% |
| Leverkusen clean sheet | 41% |
| Paderborn clean sheet | 9% |
The most likely score in Leverkusen vs Paderborn is 2-0, a 11% chance in the Statz model, ahead of 2-1 at 9%. The Bundesliga game kicks off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 21 November 2026, and the projection refreshes as the team news lands.
The Statz model projects Leverkusen 2.46 - 0.88 Paderborn in goals for Leverkusen vs Paderborn, with over 2.5 goals 65% likely and both teams to score 54%.
Statz projects 20 players for Leverkusen vs Paderborn on Saturday 21 November 2026, across 9 markets from goals and shots to fouls, cards, tackles and passes. The projections cover the XI the Lineups tab shows, and refresh as the team news lands before the 14:30 UK time kick-off.
Leverkusen host Paderborn at BayArena, Leverkusen on 21 November 2026 at 14:30 in the Bundesliga. Leverkusen's last five results: W L L L W (2 wins and 3 losses). Paderborn's last five: L D W D D (1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss).
Leverkusen vs Paderborn kicks off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 21 November 2026 in the Bundesliga, at BayArena, Leverkusen. BayArena holds 30,210 people. The confirmed lineups replace the predicted XIs on this page about an hour before kick-off, and the live score and match stats follow from 14:30.
Leverkusen vs Paderborn is being played at BayArena in Leverkusen on Saturday 21 November 2026, the home ground of Leverkusen, which holds 30,210 people. Kick-off is at 14:30 UK time, and the match is part of the Bundesliga.
Leverkusen have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 10 and conceding 12, with results reading W W L L W from oldest to newest. Their last game was a 2-1 win away to Koln in the Bundesliga on 8 November.
Paderborn have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 5 and conceding 6, with results reading L D W D D from oldest to newest. Their last game was a 2-2 draw at home to Frankfurt in the Bundesliga on 7 November.
Patrik Schick leads Leverkusen with 8 goals across their last 10 games, 0.8 a game, the most of any Leverkusen player in that run. The Stats tab of this page ranks every Leverkusen player on shots, fouls, cards and tackles over the same games.
Marvin Pieringer leads Paderborn with 18 fouls committed across their last 10 games, 1.8 a game, the most of any Paderborn player in that run. The Stats tab of this page ranks every Paderborn player on shots, fouls, cards and tackles over the same games.
Statz predicts Leverkusen vs Paderborn with 11 starters a side: Leverkusen line up 4-2-3-1 and Paderborn 3-5-2, ahead of the 14:30 UK time kick-off on Saturday 21 November 2026. The predicted XIs are on the Lineups tab of this page, and update to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
Statz's projection model makes Leverkusen the favourite with a 71% chance of winning, against 11% for Paderborn and 18% for the draw. Projected goals are Leverkusen 2.5 - 0.9 Paderborn.
The most likely score in Leverkusen vs Paderborn is 2-0, a Leverkusen win, at 11%, from Statz's projection model. Both teams to score is 54% likely and over 2.5 goals 65%. Every scoreline's chance is on the Projections tab of this page.
Statz projects 9 player markets for Leverkusen vs Paderborn, from goals and shots to fouls, cards, tackles and passes, for every starter on the Projections tab of this page. The Bets tab prices the best bet builder picks against bet365, and the match projection gives each side's chance of winning.
Statz's projection model expects Leverkusen 2.5 - 0.9 Paderborn in goals. It gives Leverkusen a 71% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Paderborn 11%. Both teams to score is 54% likely, over 1.5 goals 85% and over 2.5 goals 65%. The most likely scorelines are 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 3-0 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 1-0 (8%).
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | Leverkusen win | 11% |
| 2-1 | Leverkusen win | 9% |
| 3-0 | Leverkusen win | 9% |
| 1-1 | Draw | 8% |
| 1-0 | Leverkusen win | 8% |
Statz's predicted starting XIs for Leverkusen vs Paderborn, updated to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
| # | Leverkusen | Fouls committed | Paderborn | Fouls committed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | F. Medina | 12 | M. Pieringer | 18 |
| 2 | P. Schick | 11 | L. Curda | 15 |
| 3 | I. Maza | 11 | J. Horst | 10 |
| 4 | J. Quansah | 9 | T. Scheller | 9 |
| 5 | A. Moreira | 9 | S. Castaneda | 8 |
| # | Leverkusen | Shots | Paderborn | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P. Schick | 39 | S. Tigges | 17 |
| 2 | I. Maza | 35 | S. Castaneda | 14 |
| 3 | A. Moreira | 20 | S. Marino | 14 |
| 4 | M. Diaby | 11 | L. Curda | 11 |
| 5 | J. Quansah | 10 | M. Pieringer | 10 |
| # | Leverkusen | Shots on target | Paderborn | Shots on target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P. Schick | 18 | S. Marino | 5 |
| 2 | I. Maza | 10 | S. Castaneda | 5 |
| 3 | A. Moreira | 8 | S. Tigges | 5 |
| 4 | J. Quansah | 5 | R. Obermair | 4 |
| 5 | M. Gutiérrez | 3 | R. Philippe | 4 |
| # | Leverkusen | Goals | Paderborn | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P. Schick | 8 | S. Tigges | 2 |
| 2 | I. Maza | 3 | S. Marino | 2 |
| 3 | J. Quansah | 2 | M. Pieringer | 1 |
| 4 | C. Kofane | 2 | R. Obermair | 1 |
| 5 | A. García | 1 | R. Philippe | 1 |
| # | Leverkusen | Yellow cards | Paderborn | Yellow cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | F. Medina | 4 | T. Scheller | 2 |
| 2 | I. Maza | 3 | L. Ulrich | 2 |
| 3 | A. Moreira | 2 | J. Horst | 2 |
| 4 | E. Tapsoba | 2 | D. Zeitler | 1 |
| 5 | A. García | 2 | T. Baack | 1 |
Statz's bet builder picks for Leverkusen vs Paderborn: Miguel Gutiérrez 1+ shots (100% hit rate at 1.22); Laurin Curda 1+ shots (100% hit rate at 1.40). Combined odds 1.71 at bet365.
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 2.2 | 5 of 18 |
| Goals against | 1.9 | 11 of 18 |
| Shots | 18.3 | 2 of 18 |
| Shots on target | 6 | 5 of 18 |
| Fouls | 11.1 | 7 of 18 |
| Tackles | 15 | 13 of 18 |
| Passes | 545.9 | 2 of 18 |
| Corners | 7.2 | 2 of 18 |
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 1.1 | 15 of 18 |
| Goals against | 1.2 | 4 of 18 |
| Shots | 13.6 | 14 of 18 |
| Shots on target | 3.4 | 16 of 18 |
| Fouls | 10.6 | 10 of 18 |
| Tackles | 18.1 | 3 of 18 |
| Passes | 468.6 | 8 of 18 |
| Corners | 4.6 | 13 of 18 |