| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | South Africa win | 16.8% |
| 0-0 | Draw | 15.0% |
| 1-1 | Draw | 13.1% |
| 1-0 | Kenya win | 11.6% |
| 0-2 | South Africa win | 9.5% |
| 1-2 | South Africa win | 7.3% |
| 2-1 | Kenya win | 5.1% |
| 2-0 | Kenya win | 4.5% |
| 0-3 | South Africa win | 3.5% |
| 2-2 | Draw | 2.8% |
| Market | Chance |
|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 36% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% |
| Kenya clean sheet | 33% |
| South Africa clean sheet | 46% |
The most likely score in Kenya vs South Africa is 0-1, a 17% chance in the Statz model, ahead of 0-0 at 15%. The Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications game kicks off at 16:00 UK time on Tuesday 17 November 2026, and the projection refreshes as the team news lands.
The Statz model projects Kenya 0.78 - 1.12 South Africa in goals for Kenya vs South Africa, with over 2.5 goals 30% likely and both teams to score 36%.
Statz projects 18 players for Kenya vs South Africa on Tuesday 17 November 2026, across 9 markets from goals and shots to fouls, cards, tackles and passes. The projections cover the XI the Lineups tab shows, and refresh as the team news lands before the 16:00 UK time kick-off.
Kenya host South Africa at Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi on 17 November 2026 at 16:00 in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications. Kenya's last five results: D W D L D (1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss). South Africa's last five: W L W W D (3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss). In their last 1 meetings, Kenya have won 0, South Africa 0, with 1 draw.
Kenya vs South Africa kicks off at 16:00 UK time on Tuesday 17 November 2026 in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications, at Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi. Nyayo National Stadium holds 30,000 people. The confirmed lineups replace the predicted XIs on this page about an hour before kick-off, and the live score and match stats follow from 16:00.
Kenya vs South Africa is being played at Nyayo National Stadium in Nairobi on Tuesday 17 November 2026, the home ground of Kenya, which holds 30,000 people. Kick-off is at 16:00 UK time, and the match is part of the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications.
Kenya have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 7 and conceding 4, with results reading D W D L D from oldest to newest. Their last game was a 2-2 draw away to South Africa in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications on 13 November.
South Africa have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 10 and conceding 4, with results reading W L W W D from oldest to newest. Their last game was a 2-2 draw at home to Kenya in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications on 13 November.
Across the last 1 meetings Kenya have won 0, South Africa have won 0 and 1 was drawn, with Kenya scoring 2 goals to South Africa's 2. The most recent was South Africa 2-2 Kenya on 13 November 2026 in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications.
Ryan Ogam leads Kenya with 4 goals across their last 10 games, 0.4 a game, the most of any Kenya player in that run. The Stats tab of this page ranks every Kenya player on shots, fouls, cards and tackles over the same games.
Relebohile Mofokeng leads South Africa with 16 shots across their last 10 games, 1.6 a game, the most of any South Africa player in that run. The Stats tab of this page ranks every South Africa player on shots, fouls, cards and tackles over the same games.
Dahane Beida is the referee for Kenya vs South Africa, averaging 24.8 fouls and 2.3 yellow cards per game across 4 games this season. That is 0.00 red cards a game, and the referee card on this page sets the record beside both teams' fouls and cards.
Until the team news for Kenya vs South Africa is in, the Lineups tab shows the XI each side last started with: Kenya's XI from their 2-2 draw at South Africa on Fri 13 Nov 2026, and South Africa's XI from their 2-2 draw v Kenya at home on Fri 13 Nov 2026. Predicted lineups replace them once the team news is in, and the confirmed XIs about an hour before kick-off.
Statz's projection model makes South Africa the favourite with a 44% chance of winning, against 25% for Kenya and 31% for the draw. Projected goals are Kenya 0.8 - 1.1 South Africa.
The most likely score in Kenya vs South Africa is 0-1, a South Africa win, at 17%, from Statz's projection model. Both teams to score is 36% likely and over 2.5 goals 30%. Every scoreline's chance is on the Projections tab of this page.
Statz projects 9 player markets for Kenya vs South Africa, from goals and shots to fouls, cards, tackles and passes, for every starter on the Projections tab of this page. The Bets tab prices the best bet builder picks against bet365, and the match projection gives each side's chance of winning.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov 2026 | Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications | South Africa vs Kenya | 2-2 |
Statz's projection model expects Kenya 0.8 - 1.1 South Africa in goals. It gives Kenya a 25% chance of winning, the draw 31% and South Africa 44%. Both teams to score is 36% likely, over 1.5 goals 57% and over 2.5 goals 30%. The most likely scorelines are 0-1 (17%), 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 0-2 (9%).
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | South Africa win | 17% |
| 0-0 | Draw | 15% |
| 1-1 | Draw | 13% |
| 1-0 | Kenya win | 12% |
| 0-2 | South Africa win | 9% |
Predicted lineups for Kenya vs South Africa are not in yet, so these are the XIs each side last started with: Kenya's XI from their 2-2 draw at South Africa on Fri 13 Nov 2026, and South Africa's XI from their 2-2 draw v Kenya at home on Fri 13 Nov 2026.
| # | Kenya | Fouls committed | South Africa | Fouls committed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | B. Omondi | 4 | Y. Sithole | 10 |
| 2 | D. Abuya | 3 | T. Maseko | 8 |
| 3 | T. Ouma | 3 | R. Mofokeng | 7 |
| 4 | F. Odhiambo | 3 | T. Mokoena | 7 |
| 5 | A. Wanjala | 3 | A. Modiba | 6 |
| # | Kenya | Shots | South Africa | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | R. Ogam | 11 | R. Mofokeng | 16 |
| 2 | D. Abuya | 3 | O. Appollis | 11 |
| 3 | S. Sirengo | 3 | T. Maseko | 10 |
| 4 | J. Ochieng | 3 | I. Rayners | 9 |
| 5 | M. Obiero | 3 | T. Mokoena | 8 |
| # | Kenya | Shots on target | South Africa | Shots on target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | R. Ogam | 4 | R. Mofokeng | 6 |
| 2 | S. Sirengo | 2 | O. Appollis | 5 |
| 3 | M. Bajaber | 1 | I. Rayners | 5 |
| 4 | D. Abuya | 1 | T. Mokoena | 3 |
| 5 | M. Obiero | 1 | E. Makgopa | 3 |
| # | Kenya | Goals | South Africa | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | R. Ogam | 4 | R. Mofokeng | 3 |
| 2 | A. Otieno | 1 | T. Mokoena | 1 |
| 3 | Z. Obiero | 1 | T. Maseko | 1 |
| 4 | M. Olunga | 1 | S. Kabini | 1 |
| 5 | I. Okon | 1 |
| # | Kenya | Yellow cards | South Africa | Yellow cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | J. Ochieng | 1 | T. Mokoena | 2 |
| 2 | R. Odada | 1 | N. Sibisi | 1 |
| 3 | R. Onyango | 1 | T. Mbatha | 1 |
| 4 | M. Okwaro | 1 | A. Modiba | 1 |
| 5 | M. Bajaber | 1 | T. Maseko | 1 |
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 2 | 12 of 58 |
| Goals against | 1.4 | 40 of 58 |
| Shots | 10.1 | 14 of 58 |
| Shots on target | 4.2 | 14 of 58 |
| Fouls | 13 | 22 of 58 |
| Passes | 2 | 21 of 58 |
| Corners | 5 | 19 of 58 |
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 1.9 | 13 of 58 |
| Goals against | 0.6 | 9 of 58 |
| Shots | 12.4 | 3 of 58 |
| Shots on target | 4.4 | 13 of 58 |
| Fouls | 12.1 | 31 of 58 |
| Tackles | 13 | 7 of 58 |
| Passes | 517.8 | 1 of 58 |
| Corners | 6.4 | 2 of 58 |