Updated 15 November 2026.
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | Iceland win | 13.5% |
| 1-0 | Iceland win | 13.3% |
| 2-1 | Iceland win | 9.4% |
| 1-1 | Draw | 9.3% |
| 3-0 | Iceland win | 9.1% |
| 0-0 | Draw | 6.6% |
| 3-1 | Iceland win | 6.3% |
| 0-1 | Luxembourg win | 4.6% |
| 4-0 | Iceland win | 4.6% |
| 2-2 | Draw | 3.3% |
| Market | Chance |
|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 44% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% |
| Iceland clean sheet | 50% |
| Luxembourg clean sheet | 13% |
The most likely score in Iceland vs Luxembourg is 2-0, a 13% chance in the Statz model, ahead of 1-0 at 13%. The UEFA Nations League game kicks off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 16 November 2026, and the projection refreshes as the team news lands.
The Statz model projects Iceland 2.02 - 0.70 Luxembourg in goals for Iceland vs Luxembourg, with over 2.5 goals 51% likely and both teams to score 44%.
Statz projects 20 players for Iceland vs Luxembourg on Monday 16 November 2026, across 9 markets from goals and shots to fouls, cards, tackles and passes. The projections cover the XI the Lineups tab shows, and refresh as the team news lands before the 17:00 UK time kick-off.
Iceland host Luxembourg at Laugardalsvöllur, Reykjavík on 16 November 2026 at 17:00 in the UEFA Nations League. Iceland's last five results: D W W D W (3 wins and 2 draws). Luxembourg's last five: W L L L L (1 win and 4 losses). In their last 3 meetings, Iceland have won 1, Luxembourg 1, with 1 draw.
Iceland vs Luxembourg kicks off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 16 November 2026 in the UEFA Nations League, at Laugardalsvöllur, Reykjavík. Laugardalsvöllur holds 15,427 people. The confirmed lineups replace the predicted XIs on this page about an hour before kick-off, and the live score and match stats follow from 17:00.
Iceland vs Luxembourg is being played at Laugardalsvöllur in Reykjavík on Monday 16 November 2026, the home ground of Iceland, which holds 15,427 people. Kick-off is at 17:00 UK time, and the match is part of the UEFA Nations League.
Iceland have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 games, scoring 12 and conceding 1, with results reading D W W D W from oldest to newest. Their last game was a 5-0 win away to Bulgaria in the UEFA Nations League on 13 November.
Luxembourg have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 games, scoring 2 and conceding 8, with results reading W L L L L from oldest to newest. Their last game was a 0-1 defeat at home to Estonia in the UEFA Nations League on 13 November.
Across the last 3 meetings Iceland have won 1, Luxembourg have won 1 and 1 was drawn, with Iceland scoring 5 goals to Luxembourg's 4. The most recent was Luxembourg 0-3 Iceland on 29 September 2026 in the UEFA Nations League.
Orri Óskarsson leads Iceland with 6 goals across their last 10 games, 0.6 a game, the most of any Iceland player in that run. The Stats tab of this page ranks every Iceland player on shots, fouls, cards and tackles over the same games.
Leandro Barreiro leads Luxembourg with 3 yellow cards across their last 10 games, 0.3 a game, the most of any Luxembourg player in that run. The Stats tab of this page ranks every Luxembourg player on shots, fouls, cards and tackles over the same games.
Until the team news for Iceland vs Luxembourg is in, the Lineups tab shows the XI each side last started with: Iceland's XI from their 5-0 win at Bulgaria on Fri 13 Nov 2026, and Luxembourg's XI from their 0-1 defeat v Estonia at home on Fri 13 Nov 2026. Predicted lineups replace them once the team news is in, and the confirmed XIs about an hour before kick-off.
Statz's projection model makes Iceland the favourite with a 68% chance of winning, against 12% for Luxembourg and 20% for the draw. Projected goals are Iceland 2.0 - 0.7 Luxembourg.
The most likely score in Iceland vs Luxembourg is 2-0, a Iceland win, at 13%, from Statz's projection model. Both teams to score is 44% likely and over 2.5 goals 51%. Every scoreline's chance is on the Projections tab of this page.
Statz projects 9 player markets for Iceland vs Luxembourg, from goals and shots to fouls, cards, tackles and passes, for every starter on the Projections tab of this page. The Bets tab prices the best bet builder picks against bet365, and the match projection gives each side's chance of winning.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Sep 2026 | UEFA Nations League | Luxembourg vs Iceland | 0-3 |
| 13 Oct 2023 | Euro Qualification | Iceland vs Luxembourg | 1-1 |
| 8 Sep 2023 | Euro Qualification | Luxembourg vs Iceland | 3-1 |
Statz's projection model expects Iceland 2.0 - 0.7 Luxembourg in goals. It gives Iceland a 68% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Luxembourg 12%. Both teams to score is 44% likely, over 1.5 goals 75% and over 2.5 goals 51%. The most likely scorelines are 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 3-0 (9%).
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | Iceland win | 13% |
| 1-0 | Iceland win | 13% |
| 2-1 | Iceland win | 9% |
| 1-1 | Draw | 9% |
| 3-0 | Iceland win | 9% |
Predicted lineups for Iceland vs Luxembourg are not in yet, so these are the XIs each side last started with: Iceland's XI from their 5-0 win at Bulgaria on Fri 13 Nov 2026, and Luxembourg's XI from their 0-1 defeat v Estonia at home on Fri 13 Nov 2026.
| # | Iceland | Fouls committed | Luxembourg | Fouls committed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | H. Magnússon | 12 | D. Sinani | 12 |
| 2 | H. Haraldsson | 11 | M. Olesen | 11 |
| 3 | D. Grétarsson | 10 | L. Barreiro | 10 |
| 4 | M. Ellertsson | 9 | V. Thill | 9 |
| 5 | Í. Jóhannesson | 8 | S. Korac | 8 |
| # | Iceland | Shots | Luxembourg | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O. Óskarsson | 16 | V. Thill | 17 |
| 2 | A. Gudjohnsen | 10 | D. Sinani | 11 |
| 3 | V. Pálsson | 7 | T. Moreira | 10 |
| 4 | M. Ellertsson | 6 | O. Natami | 9 |
| 5 | H. Haraldsson | 6 | A. Dardari | 7 |
| # | Iceland | Shots on target | Luxembourg | Shots on target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O. Óskarsson | 9 | V. Thill | 6 |
| 2 | A. Gudjohnsen | 5 | T. Moreira | 4 |
| 3 | B. Willumsson | 2 | M. Olesen | 3 |
| 4 | G. Sigurdsson | 2 | D. Sinani | 3 |
| 5 | H. Haraldsson | 2 | A. Dardari | 3 |
| # | Iceland | Goals | Luxembourg | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O. Óskarsson | 6 | V. Thill | 3 |
| 2 | A. Gudjohnsen | 5 | M. Olesen | 1 |
| 3 | G. Sigurdsson | 1 | T. Moreira | 1 |
| 4 | M. Ellertsson | 1 | D. Sinani | 1 |
| 5 | V. Pálsson | 1 | L. Barreiro | 1 |
| # | Iceland | Yellow cards | Luxembourg | Yellow cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | J. Thorsteinsson | 2 | L. Barreiro | 3 |
| 2 | H. Magnússon | 2 | D. Carlson | 3 |
| 3 | D. Grétarsson | 2 | D. Sinani | 2 |
| 4 | M. Ellertsson | 2 | M. Olesen | 2 |
| 5 | Í. Jóhannesson | 2 | T. Moreira | 2 |
Statz's bet builder picks for Iceland vs Luxembourg: Brynjólfur Willumsson 1+ shots on target (100% hit rate at 1.20); Logi Tómasson 1+ fouls (100% hit rate at 1.25); Andri Gudjohnsen 1+ shots on target (80% hit rate at 1.22); Victor Pálsson 1+ shots (80% hit rate at 1.44). Combined odds 2.64 at bet365.
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 3 | 2 of 54 |
| Goals against | 0.2 | 4 of 54 |
| Shots | 14 | 24 of 54 |
| Shots on target | 5.2 | 16 of 54 |
| Fouls | 11.6 | 29 of 54 |
| Tackles | 18 | 7 of 54 |
| Passes | 493.8 | 21 of 54 |
| Corners | 5.2 | 17 of 54 |
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 0.4 | 50 of 54 |
| Goals against | 1.6 | 41 of 54 |
| Shots | 10.8 | 40 of 54 |
| Shots on target | 4 | 32 of 54 |
| Fouls | 13.8 | 10 of 54 |
| Tackles | 11.4 | 51 of 54 |
| Passes | 549.4 | 10 of 54 |
| Corners | 3.2 | 44 of 54 |