Italy host Belgium at Stadio Olimpico, Roma on 25 September 2026 at 19:45 in the UEFA Nations League. Italy's last five results: L W D W W (3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss). Belgium's last five: D W W W L (3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss). In their last 2 meetings, Italy have won 1, Belgium 0, with 1 draw.
Italy vs Belgium kicks off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 25 September 2026 in the UEFA Nations League, at Stadio Olimpico, Roma.
Italy vs Belgium is being played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma, the home ground of Italy.
Italy's last five results read L W D W W (oldest to newest): 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss.
Belgium's last five results read D W W W L (oldest to newest): 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss.
Across the last 2 meetings Italy have won 1, Belgium have won 0 and 1 was drawn. The most recent was Belgium 0-1 Italy on 14 November 2024 in the UEFA Nations League.
Moise Kean leads Italy with 6 goals across their last 10 games.
Charles De Ketelaere leads Belgium with 5 goals across their last 10 games.
Daniel Siebert is the referee for Italy vs Belgium, averaging 20.3 fouls and 5.3 yellow cards per game this season.
Statz's predicted starting XIs for Italy and Belgium are on the Lineups tab of this page, and update to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
Statz's projection model makes Italy the favourite with a 42% chance of winning, against 33% for Belgium and 25% for the draw. Projected goals are Italy 1.5 - 1.3 Belgium.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1, a draw, at 12%. Both teams to score is 57% likely and over 2.5 goals 53%. Every scoreline's chance is on the Projections tab of this page.
Statz AI projects goals, shots, fouls, cards and more for every player and both teams in the Projections tab, and the Bets tab prices the best bet builder picks against bet365.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Nov 2024 | UEFA Nations League | Belgium vs Italy | 0-1 |
| 10 Oct 2024 | UEFA Nations League | Italy vs Belgium | 2-2 |
Statz's projection model expects Italy 1.5 - 1.3 Belgium in goals. It gives Italy a 42% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Belgium 33%. Both teams to score is 57% likely, over 1.5 goals 77% and over 2.5 goals 53%. The most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 0-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%).
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Draw | 12% |
| 1-0 | Italy win | 9% |
| 2-1 | Italy win | 9% |
| 0-1 | Belgium win | 8% |
| 1-2 | Belgium win | 8% |
Statz's predicted starting XIs for Italy vs Belgium, updated to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
| # | Italy | Fouls committed | Belgium | Fouls committed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | N. Barella | 16 | N. Raskin | 15 |
| 2 | M. Retegui | 10 | Y. Tielemans | 13 |
| 3 | A. Bastoni | 10 | T. Castagne | 12 |
| 4 | M. Locatelli | 9 | B. Mechele | 10 |
| 5 | P. Esposito | 8 | T. Meunier | 10 |
| # | Italy | Shots | Belgium | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | M. Retegui | 28 | K. Bruyne | 29 |
| 2 | P. Esposito | 24 | L. Trossard | 21 |
| 3 | M. Kean | 19 | Y. Tielemans | 15 |
| 4 | S. Tonali | 16 | D. Lukébakio | 13 |
| 5 | F. Dimarco | 15 | M. Cuyper | 12 |
| # | Italy | Shots on target | Belgium | Shots on target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P. Esposito | 13 | K. Bruyne | 9 |
| 2 | M. Retegui | 11 | C. Ketelaere | 7 |
| 3 | M. Kean | 10 | J. Doku | 6 |
| 4 | F. Dimarco | 6 | L. Trossard | 6 |
| 5 | S. Tonali | 6 | M. Cuyper | 6 |
| # | Italy | Goals | Belgium | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | M. Kean | 6 | C. Ketelaere | 5 |
| 2 | M. Retegui | 5 | R. Lukaku | 4 |
| 3 | P. Esposito | 5 | D. Lukébakio | 4 |
| 4 | G. Raspadori | 2 | Y. Tielemans | 3 |
| 5 | S. Tonali | 2 | L. Trossard | 3 |
| # | Italy | Yellow cards | Belgium | Yellow cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A. Bastoni | 4 | M. Cuyper | 2 |
| 2 | N. Barella | 3 | T. Castagne | 2 |
| 3 | A. Cambiaso | 1 | B. Mechele | 1 |
| 4 | S. Tonali | 1 | A. Witsel | 1 |
| 5 | P. Esposito | 1 | K. Bruyne | 1 |
Statz's bet builder picks for Italy vs Belgium: Koni De Winter 1+ fouls (100% hit rate at 1.18); Maxim De Cuyper 1+ shots (80% hit rate at 1.50); Dodi Lukébakio 2+ shots (80% hit rate at 1.67). Combined odds 2.96 at bet365.